My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 01/23/2026: Nasdaq Breakdown, Semiconductor Divergence, Gold and Silver Rally

As the trading week draws to a close this Friday, January 23, 2026, the markets are presenting a complex tapestry of technical signals, divergent sector moves, and psychological price barriers. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dissected the price action with his signature focus on "logic and charts" over hype and narratives.

With the S&P 500 futures testing lows and the Nasdaq confirming a significant trendline breakdown, the broader market sentiment is shifting toward caution. However, within this volatility lies opportunity for the disciplined trader. From the massive divergence in the semiconductor space to historic psychological levels in precious metals, today’s session is rich with actionable setups.

The S&P 500 and the Message of the Doji

The S&P 500 futures opened the morning session at the low end of their range, signaling a potential exhaustion of the recent two-day bounce. Following a sharp sell-off earlier in the week, the market attempted a recovery, but the technicals suggest that momentum is stalling.

Gareth pointed to a specific candlestick formation from yesterday’s session as a harbinger of indecision: the Doji.

"Yesterday, not so strong. Yeah, we opened higher, but we closed basically exactly where we opened, putting in this little bit of a Doji candle… it's where buyers and sellers meet and no one wins."

A Doji candle forms when the opening and closing prices are virtually identical, creating a cross shape. In technical analysis, this represents a momentary equilibrium between bulls and bears. However, occurring after a bounce that failed to recoup all losses, it often signals that the buying pressure has evaporated.

The recovery earlier this week only retraced about three-quarters of the initial drop triggered by geopolitical tensions regarding Greenland tariffs. The failure to reclaim the highs is problematic. Furthermore, the S&P remains below a key unconfirmed breakdown trendline. For bears to seize full control, Gareth noted that the index would need to confirm a break by closing below the 67.89 level. Until then, the market remains in a precarious "danger zone," requiring traders to remain vigilant against a potential rollover.

Nasdaq 100: A Confirmed Breakdown

While the S&P 500 is teasing a breakdown, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has already committed to one. The index has confirmed a break below a major trendline that dates back to the lows of April 2025.

Yesterday’s price action was telling: the QQQ opened at the highs, sold off to the lows, and while it bounced slightly into the close, it failed to retest the broken trendline. This inability to reclaim support is a classic bearish signal.

This technical damage paints a picture of a market where investors should exercise increased caution. When a long-standing trendline—one that has guided price action for nearly a year—is violated and confirmed, it often marks a shift in the intermediate-term trend. The "buy the dip" mentality that works so well in uptrends can quickly become dangerous in this environment.

Adding to the headwinds for growth stocks is the 10-year Treasury yield. The yield recently broke out of a massive bull flag pattern. While it is currently retracing, Gareth explained that this is normal behavior after a breakout consumes significant buying energy.

"You break out, you retrace, and then you end up going higher. And that would be more problematic for the markets and likely signal further downside on the market equity side."

Semiconductor Divergence: Intel vs. Nvidia

One of the most fascinating narratives playing out today is the stark divergence within the semiconductor sector. Two industry giants, Intel and Nvidia, are moving in opposite directions, offering distinct lessons in technical analysis and news flow interpretation.

Intel: The Technical Pullback

Intel shares are under heavy pressure, dropping approximately 12% following earnings. This move validates the technical warning Gareth issued yesterday, predicting a pullback based on the stock’s overextended status.

"The stock rallied from $35 on the day before Christmas… to almost $55. It makes sense that an extended move should see some sort of pullback."

For traders, the question is where to step in. Gareth outlined two distinct levels based on time horizon:

1. Day Trade Level ($44): This level corresponds to a gap fill from a previous session where the price jumped from close to open. Gap fills often act as magnets for price action and can provide short-term support for a bounce.
2. Swing Trade Level ($42): For a multi-day hold, the $42 level is more compelling. This area features a confluence of pivot points and a longer-term trendline. "At $42, this should get some sort of bounce… that would be a potential… for a more multi-day bounce."

Nvidia: Choreographed Resilience?

In contrast to Intel, Nvidia is trading higher, up roughly 1.75% on news that Chinese entities like Alibaba and ByteDance may begin purchasing H200 chips. Gareth noted the timing of this positive news cycle as almost "choreographed" to offset the negative drag from Intel on the broader chip sector.

Technically, Nvidia remains rangebound. It is trapped between two clear trendlines—a lower support line that was previously resistance, and an upper resistance line.

"Basically Nvidia is what I would call rangebound. Rangebound means that it could go anywhere from this trend line up to this trend line… until we get either a break down or a breakout."

Until the stock resolves this range, it remains a trader's battleground, with the probabilities favoring mean reversion within the channel rather than a sustained trend.

Broadcom: The Bear Flag Breakdown

Another chip name, Broadcom, offers a textbook example of a bearish continuation pattern. The stock formed a "bear flag"—a consolidation period following a sharp drop—and has now broken down from that flag.

Despite the market's attempt to rally yesterday, Broadcom remained weak, closing negative. Today, it is slipping further in pre-market action. Gareth identified a massive gap fill around $317 as the key level to watch for a potential day trade bounce.

Precious Metals: The Psychology of Round Numbers

The precious metals complex is staging a historic run, with both Gold and Silver approaching monumental psychological milestones. Gold is trading just below $4,950, while Silver is knocking on the door of $100 per ounce.

Gareth emphasized the powerful role of human psychology in these price moves. Markets have a natural gravitation toward "even numbers," which often act as final targets before a reversal.

"There's a psychological factor in human nature that really wants even numbers tagged… It coaxes anyone on the fence to get bullish. It was still a little wishy-washy and you get the last group in and then that's where markets top."

He drew a parallel to the Dot Com bubble, where the Nasdaq Composite pierced 5,000 before collapsing. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently flirted with 50,000.

For Gold, the target is a parallel trendline just above $5,000. For Silver, the $100 mark is the "foregone conclusion." Traders should expect these levels to be pierced, potentially inducing a frenzy of retail buying that smart money may use as liquidity to exit positions.

Energy Markets: Weather and Wedges

The energy sector is providing opportunities on both the long and short side, driven by technical patterns and weather narratives.

Oil: Crude oil is pushing higher following a breakout from a classic wedge pattern. This technical setup, where price compresses between converging trendlines before expanding, suggests continued bullish momentum.

Natural Gas: Prices are surging due to a massive snowstorm forecast for the East Coast and Midwest. However, Gareth views this as a "fade" opportunity. Weather-driven rallies are often short-lived, as the market prices in the event before it concludes.

"Once the storm gets past, I do think again Nat gas prices start to come in decently."

Having already capitalized on a 10% gain in the inverse ETF (KOLD), the strategy now is to wait for the hysteria to subside. The chart shows a double top formation, and once the weather narrative clears, a pullback to the breakout support level around $4.45-$4.50 is likely.

Bitcoin: Hanging on the Cliff Edge

Bitcoin's technical posture is increasingly precarious. The cryptocurrency is "holding on like it's holding on to the side of a cliff," clinging to support levels that are keeping it from a significant drop.

The chart reveals a potential Head and Shoulders pattern—a classic reversal formation. If Bitcoin breaks confirmed support, the downside targets are substantial.

"If this breaks and confirms it's likely headed down to $80,000, potentially on its way to a bigger move down."

For those looking to accumulate, patience is the primary tool. Gareth is eyeing a major buy zone significantly lower, between $74,000 and $69,000. This disciplined approach—waiting for price to come to your levels rather than chasing—is the hallmark of a professional trader.

Conclusion: Discipline in a Divergent Market

As we head into the weekend, the market is offering a masterclass in divergence. We have confirmed breakdowns in the Nasdaq, rangebound action in Nvidia, bear flags in Broadcom, and historic breakouts in precious metals.

The common thread across all these setups is the reliance on specific, chart-based levels. Whether it is waiting for Intel to hit $44 for a day trade, watching for the S&P to confirm a breakdown below 67.89, or anticipating the psychological tag of $100 on Silver, the roadmap is defined by data, not emotion.

As Gareth reminded viewers, "Logic and charts beat hype and narratives every time." By ignoring the noise and focusing on the levels, traders can navigate the "danger zone" of the current market environment with confidence and precision.

Be sure to tune in for the Weekly Wrap after the bell today for a comprehensive analysis of the week's action and a look ahead at what to expect when futures open on Sunday night.