My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 01/30/2026: Kevin Warsh Shock Spurs Gold Silver Crash Rising Yields and Equity Breakdown

The markets have been thrown into a state of high volatility following a major announcement from the White House regarding the future leadership of the Federal Reserve. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, dissected the violent moves in precious metals, the warning signs flashing in the bond market, and the technical breakdowns occurring in both equities and cryptocurrencies.

The Kevin Warsh Factor: A Shift in Fed Dynamics

The catalyst for the recent market turbulence was President Trump’s announcement of Kevin Warsh as the nominee to replace Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. While political appointments often generate headlines, this specific nomination has profound implications for the macro-economic thesis that has driven asset prices over the last year.

The market had largely priced in a highly dovish successor—essentially a "yes man" who would cut rates and print money at the President's behest. This expectation fueled the "debasement trade" that sent gold and silver to historic highs. However, Warsh is viewed as less of a sure bet for unrestricted monetary expansion.

As Gareth noted during the broadcast:

"He's not a sure bet for always cutting rates when the president asks him to. And by that, it takes one of the key main thesis factors away from the precious metal trade… one of the key factors was that it was the degradation of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve losing its independence."

This nomination introduces a counterintuitive dynamic to the bond market. Conventionally, one might assume a less dovish chair would send yields skyrocketing due to tighter policy. However, Gareth argues that installing a "stooge" would have actually spiked long-term borrowing costs, as creditors would demand higher premiums (yields) to hold the debt of a nation debasing its currency. By appointing someone with a perception of independence, the President may have inadvertently helped stabilize long-end rates, even if the immediate reaction in the metals market was a violent sell-off.

Precious Metals: Capitulation and Critical Support

The reaction in the metals market was nothing short of a collapse. Silver experienced a dramatic flush, dropping approximately 15% intraday before staging a partial recovery. Gold followed suit, dropping as much as 12% from its recent highs.

For traders, the question is whether this is a trend reversal or a buying opportunity. The technicals provide a clear roadmap.

Silver’s Line in the Sand

Silver’s plunge brought it down to test the resolve of the bulls, but the chart damage is significant. The key technical level to watch is the trendline connecting back to November, which sits at $88.

"For me as a technician, this trend line is going to be the one I watch, the eighty-eight dollar level… If this level breaks, that's where things get really nasty. That's where we could see that bigger correction down to seventy five dollars or even below on silver."

This $88 level has acted as a springboard multiple times in the past few months. A violation here would signal a structural shift in the trend, potentially opening the door to a much deeper correction. Until silver tests that $88 level successfully, the risk-reward ratio for new long positions remains unfavorable.

Gold’s Technical Target

Gold is also searching for a floor. The daily chart reveals a clear trendline connecting the lows from August 2025, November 2025, and early January. This projects a major support level at approximately $4,600 on spot gold. Given the magnitude of the recent move, a test of this level seems probable as the market digests the implications of the new Fed leadership.

The Inflation Reality: Yields and Commodities

Despite the narrative that inflation has been tamed, the bond market and commodity complex are telling a different story. Following the Warsh announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield did not collapse; in fact, yields moved higher. This rising yield environment, occurring alongside a strengthening dollar, suggests the market is sniffing out renewed inflationary pressure.

Gareth pointed to a disconnect between official CPI data and real-world commodity prices. While government data may show moderation, the raw materials that drive the economy are surging:

• Crude Oil: Up 15% in the month of January alone.
• Copper: Up nearly 50% since July 2025.
• Silver: Even with the pullback, up over 100% since November.

"I've preached and screamed about this to you guys… look at silver. Look at gold. Look at nickel. Look at aluminum. Heck, look at copper. Look at live cattle prices. I mean, there is inflation."

When input costs like oil and copper rise by double digits in a single month, those costs inevitably filter through to the consumer. The bond market’s refusal to let yields drop is a direct acknowledgment that the fight against inflation is far from over. This creates a headwind for equities, as higher yields compress valuations and increase borrowing costs for corporations.

Equity Markets: The "Safe Haven" Fallacy

Yesterday’s market action provided a stark lesson in liquidity and correlation. When the selling started, it wasn't just risk assets that fell—it was everything. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, gold, silver, and Bitcoin all dropped in unison. This synchronized selling indicates a liquidation event where "safe havens" failed to provide safety.

The Microsoft Warning

Perhaps the most alarming signal came from Microsoft. The tech giant, a $3.5 trillion company often viewed as a stable fortress of the market, plummeted 10% yesterday, with intraday losses reaching as deep as 13-15%.

"When you have a stock that is supposed to be the behemoth, that is supposed to be one of the safest long-term investments, and it can drop ten to fifteen percent in a day, That's telling you something. That's telling you there's a lot of hot air in not just most stocks, but even the mega cap stocks."

While Microsoft has stabilized around $433, the technical damage suggests further downside. Gareth maintains a target of $390-$400 over the coming months. This zone represents a high-probability buying opportunity for swing traders, but the path there may be volatile.

S&P 500 Wedge Breakdown

The broader S&P 500 is also flashing a technical warning. The index has broken below a key wedge pattern. While it recovered slightly to close near flat, it remains below the breakdown line. In technical analysis, once a wedge breaks and price remains below the trendline, the probabilities favor a rollover.

Unless the S&P 500 can reclaim the wedge support and push back into "price discovery" mode, the bias remains to the downside. The Nasdaq (QQQ) shows a similar setup, having closed below its white trendline support for two consecutive sessions, confirming the breakdown.

Semiconductor Mania: SanDisk and KLAC

The semiconductor sector continues to exhibit signs of late-cycle euphoria, particularly in memory chips. SanDisk (trading under WDC/Western Digital umbrella or related entities in this context) hit an all-time high of $666, a price level that defies historical valuation norms for a commodity business.

Memory chips are notoriously cyclical and non-proprietary. Unlike Nvidia’s AI chips, which have a competitive moat, memory chips are produced by multiple competitors globally. With Micron and others investing billions into new fabrication plants (such as the $24 billion Singapore expansion), a supply glut is inevitable.

"Everyone's going to be making memory chips when the margins are this high. And within a year, I think SanDisk is back to a two hundred dollar stock."

Similarly, KLAC has begun to roll over. The stock is currently falling, and Gareth identified a gap fill at $1,435 as the first viable entry point. Trying to catch these falling knives before they reach major technical support is a recipe for disaster. The discipline lies in waiting for the price to come to your level, rather than chasing the action.

Bitcoin: An Identity Crisis

Bitcoin is currently suffering from a severe identity crisis. It failed to act as a safe haven alongside gold during the initial panic, and it has failed to rally alongside the stock market during risk-on periods.

The technical picture for Bitcoin is deteriorating. The cryptocurrency broke down from a bear flag pattern and has now formed a potential Head and Shoulders top.

"Do we have a head and shoulders here? Yes, we do. That's very scary if you're a Bitcoin bull… wherever we break the neckline, you're talking a thirty-five thousand dollar target."

While a drop to $35,000 is a theoretical target based on the pattern measurement, there are intermediate support levels that traders should watch:

1. $80,000: The recent pivot low.
2. $68,000 - $72,000: A major structural support zone.

The inability of Bitcoin to bounce while gold and equities attempted recoveries is a red flag. Until Bitcoin can decouple from this negative sentiment or find a clear narrative (store of value vs. risk asset), the path of least resistance appears to be lower.

Conclusion: Navigating the Flush

The market environment has shifted rapidly from complacency to caution. The nomination of Kevin Warsh has forced a repricing of the "Fed put," causing a violent unwind in the metals trade. Simultaneously, rising yields driven by commodity inflation are putting pressure on equity valuations, evidenced by the cracks forming in mega-cap leaders like Microsoft.

For traders, this is not a time for heroism or guessing. It is a time for strict adherence to technical levels.

• Watch $88 on Silver.
• Watch $4,600 on Gold.
• Watch the wedge breakdown on the S&P 500.
• Wait for $390-$400 on Microsoft.

As Gareth emphasized, trading is a game of probabilities, not certainties. When the probabilities shift—as they have with the breakdown of key trendlines and the introduction of new macro variables—the prudent strategy is to protect capital and wait for the charts to align with high-probability setups once again. The volatility is here, and with it comes opportunity, provided one has the patience to wait for the right entry.