My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 03/02/2026: S&P 500 Breakdown Risk, Oil Spike and Rising Yields

Global markets woke up to a volatile landscape this morning following a weekend dominated by geopolitical headlines involving the US and Iran. With military conflict driving oil prices sharply higher and creating unease across asset classes, the temptation for investors is to react emotionally to the news cycle. However, in this morning’s episode of My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, reinforced the cardinal rule of professional trading: logic and charts must supersede hype and narratives.

As we navigate a market environment fraught with headline risk, the technicals are painting a specific picture of probability that savvy traders can utilize. From the S&P 500’s distribution patterns to a fascinating divergence in the bond market, today’s analysis provides a roadmap for navigating the turbulence of March 2026.

The S&P 500: Navigating the Air Pocket

The S&P 500 futures (ES) opened under pressure, trading down approximately 1% in the early session, though off the overnight lows. While the immediate catalyst appears to be geopolitical tension, the technical structure of the market has been warning of this vulnerability for some time.

Gareth has remained consistent regarding the "bigger parallel channel" that has capped upside potential. The daily chart reveals a classic "rounded top" formation, a technical signal that often indicates distribution. Distribution occurs when institutional money—the "smart money"—is quietly selling positions to retail investors who are still buying the dip. This transfer of risk from strong hands to weak hands typically precedes a significant market correction.

"Eventually, retail is going to stop buying, and that's when the bottom falls out. Is it because of this headline? We don't know, but ultimately, at some point, it will."

The Critical Breakdown Level

For traders managing risk today, the focus is on a specific support zone. Gareth identified a trend line and base plate support between 6,790 and 6,800. This level is the line in the sand for the current market structure.

If the S&P 500 closes below 6,790, it triggers a larger head and shoulders pattern. In technical analysis, a breakdown of the "neckline" of a head and shoulders pattern often leads to a rapid decline because there is very little structural support immediately below. Gareth refers to this as an "air pocket."

A confirmed close below 6,790 opens the door for a move down to 6,720, with a potential measured move target of the head and shoulders pattern extending down to the 6,550 to 6,570 range. This scenario underscores the importance of waiting for closing prices to confirm breakdowns rather than reacting to intraday volatility.

The Nasdaq and the Private Credit Bubble

The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 is facing its own critical juncture, with a key support level at 22,275. Similar to the S&P 500, a break of this level would open a significant air pocket, potentially sending the index back toward the 20,000 mark—a target Gareth has maintained for the first half of the year.

The technical weakness in the Nasdaq—characterized by a bearish consolidation pattern of a drop followed by sideways movement—is exacerbated by fundamental macro risks. Beyond the immediate geopolitical fears, the market is grappling with concerns over the sustainability of the AI boom and a looming crisis in private credit.

"We'd have to see more fear over AI, more fear over private credit, which has been slowly ballooning into a catastrophe, in my humble opinion."

The private credit bubble represents a systemic risk where companies have taken on massive debt loads to fuel growth, particularly in the tech sector. Gareth highlighted Oracle as an example of a company under pressure due to its debt load, raising fears that returns from AI investments may not materialize fast enough to service these obligations. As interest rates remain relevant, highly leveraged tech companies face a precarious path forward.

The Yield-Inflation Paradox

One of the most intriguing developments in today’s market is the behavior of the 10-year Treasury yield. In a classic "flight to safety" scenario triggered by war or geopolitical conflict, investors typically rush into US Treasuries. This surge in demand drives bond prices up and yields down.

However, today we are seeing the US Dollar surge (acting as a safe haven) while yields are rising rather than falling. This anomaly suggests that the market is looking beyond the immediate safety trade and focusing on the inflationary implications of the conflict.

With oil spiking nearly 7% to $72.12, the market is pricing in a resurgence of inflation. Recent data, including the PCE and PPI reports, had already indicated sticky inflation. A sustained spike in energy prices would act as a tax on the economy and force the Federal Reserve to reconsider any dovish policy pivots.

"For me, this is an inflation signal… If oil stays elevated… what is that going to do to inflation? And I think that's what the yield spike is doing."

If the bond market believes the Fed cannot cut rates—or worse, must raise them—to combat energy-driven inflation, yields will rise even amidst geopolitical turmoil. This creates a double-edged sword for equities: higher costs of capital combined with geopolitical uncertainty.

The Discipline of the Binary Event: A Lesson in Oil

Oil is the epicenter of today's market moves, trading up significantly at $72.12. For followers of the My Trading Game Plan series, this move provides a masterclass in risk management and the difference between trading and gambling.

Last week, Gareth had a long position in oil, which was profitable. However, on Friday, prior to the weekend, he exited the position. Why sell a winning trade before a potential catalyst? Because the outcome was a binary event with 50/50 odds.

"If you replayed that 10 times, 50% of the time, there would be the conflict, 50% otherwise, I'm not into 50-50 odds. If I want 50-50 odds or thereabouts, I go to the casino with my buddies… I'm not investing for 50-50 odds."

Professional trading is about stacking probabilities in your favor (seeking 70-80% odds). Holding a position through a weekend where a binary geopolitical event could either skyrocket the asset or crash it is akin to flipping a coin. By exiting on Friday, capital was protected.

The Strategic Outlook for Oil

Now that the move has happened, chasing oil long at these levels is dangerous. The chart shows oil is above a key level, but the risk-reward ratio has shifted.

• Upside Risk: If the conflict escalates and involves the Strait of Hormuz, oil could spike to a maximum of roughly $95 per barrel.
• Downside Risk: If a resolution is found quickly, the "war premium" will evaporate, causing prices to snap back sharply.

Gareth also offered an interesting political theory regarding the timing of this conflict. With US midterms approaching, a conflict now causes short-term pain at the pump. However, if resolved with a regime change or stabilization that opens oil spigots (potentially from Iran), supply could flood the market by summer. This would potentially drive oil down to $50 by August, crushing inflation just in time for the election cycle. While speculative, this "pain now for gain later" strategy is a variable traders should consider.

Defense Stocks and Sector Rotation

Naturally, defense stocks are in focus, but the charts suggest caution against chasing.

ExxonMobil (XOM): While up on the day, the move is an extension. Buying here is "pure chasing." The technicals do not offer a low-risk entry, and finding a short entry requires waiting for a tag of a higher parallel resistance.

Lockheed Martin (LMT): This stock presents a more actionable technical setup. The weekly chart shows a vertical move that is historically unsustainable. Gareth identified a potential shorting opportunity if the stock pushes into the 695 to 700 level. This zone aligns with trendline resistance, offering a specific area to watch for a reversal trade.

Palantir: despite being a military-adjacent tech stock, Palantir is trading in a gap but remains beaten down. It is currently in "no man's land"—not a buy, not a short. Patience is required.

Precious Metals: The Gold vs. Silver Divergence

A notable divergence is occurring in the precious metals complex, which usually trades in tandem.

Gold: The Squeeze at Resistance

Gold has rallied to the exact resistance level predicted in last week’s game plan: $5,400 per ounce. The chart shows price action getting squeezed between an ascending trend line and this horizontal resistance.

• The Breakout Scenario: A decisive break above $5,400 opens the path to the all-time high at $5,600.
• The Breakdown Scenario: Rejection here likely sends gold back to the $5,000 to $5,100 pivot zone.

As of now, resistance is being respected. Traders must wait for the break to confirm direction.

Silver: The Failed Confirmation

Silver is showing relative weakness compared to gold. While it closed above a key resistance level on Friday, technical analysis requires a "confirmation signal"—a close above the previous candle's high—to validate the breakout.

Today, silver is failing to confirm and is trading lower. This weakness likely stems from silver’s dual nature as both a monetary metal and an industrial metal. With economic fears rising due to oil prices, industrial demand for silver is questionable. "If it doesn't confirm, this is going to be a failed breakout, and we likely are headed back to that $70 to $71 level on silver."

Bitcoin: The Quiet Strength

Amidst the sea of red in equity markets, Bitcoin is displaying impressive relative strength. The cryptocurrency is trading flattish to slightly green, consolidating in an "inside bar" pattern.

This behavior is a positive divergence. When the S&P 500 drops 1% and a risk asset like Bitcoin holds its ground, it indicates underlying demand. The daily chart continues to show a larger bull flag pattern. Gareth remains net bullish on the setup, playing for a breakout to the upside as long as the consolidation holds.

Conclusion: Probability Over Emotion

The defining characteristic of today's market is the clash between emotional headlines and cold, hard data. The media is designed to trigger emotional responses, urging investors to panic sell or panic buy based on fear.

However, the charts provide a sanctuary of logic. Whether it is waiting for the S&P 500 to confirm a break of 6,790, avoiding the chase in oil, or watching for the confirmation failure in silver, the technicals offer a clear game plan.

"The key is, can you be a high-probability trader by focusing on the charts and letting or shutting down your personal emotions… Psychology 101, you've got to focus on probability."

As the week unfolds with Non-Farm Payrolls data and evolving geopolitical news, sticking to the levels and ignoring the noise will be the difference between profit and loss.