My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 03/03/2026: Geopolitical Shock Tests S&P 500 Support as Oil and Yields Surge

Global markets are reeling this morning as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate significantly. With reports of drone strikes on embassies and the effective closure of the Straits of Hormuz due to prohibitive insurance costs, uncertainty has gripped the financial world. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, broke down the technical ramifications of these headlines, identifying critical support levels that are currently under siege.

As the S&P 500 futures enter free fall and commodities spike, the market is testing the resolve of bulls who have defended key levels for months. Today’s session is not just about reacting to headlines; it is about understanding the structural integrity of the market charts.

The Inflationary Fear: Yields and the Strait of Hormuz

Typically, during periods of intense geopolitical fear, investors flock to the safety of U.S. Treasuries, driving prices up and yields down. However, today’s market action presents a stark and concerning anomaly: the 10-year Treasury yield is spiking alongside fear levels.

This divergence signals that the market is not just afraid of conflict; it is afraid of a resurgence in inflation. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for global oil supply—threatens to keep oil prices elevated for a prolonged period. The U.S. has indicated this could be a month-long situation, which implies a significant disruption to supply chains.

As Gareth noted, if the Strait remains effectively closed for a month, it could take three months for oil logistics to normalize. Since oil is a foundational input cost for everything from gasoline to consumer goods, a sustained spike in crude translates directly to inflationary pressure. The bond market is pricing this in immediately, rejecting the traditional "flight to safety" narrative in favor of an inflation-protection stance.

While the 10-year yield rises, the U.S. Dollar is acting as the primary safe haven, pushing toward a critical technical juncture. The dollar is approaching a massive double-top resistance level between 99.60 and 99.75 on the DXY index. For currency traders, this zone represents a high-probability area where the dollar’s rally may stall, potentially signaling a future de-escalation or simply a technical breather.

The S&P 500: The "Dam Breaking" Scenario

The S&P 500 is facing a moment of truth. Opening down approximately 1.75%, the index is pressing heavily against a support level that has held multiple times in the past: 6,790.

In technical analysis, the more times a support level is tested, the weaker it becomes. It is a common misconception among novice traders that a level that holds many times is "strong." In reality, repeated tests absorb the buying liquidity at that level. Eventually, when the buyers are exhausted, the floor gives way.

Gareth described the potential breakdown vividly:

"In technical analysis, when you hammer a level over and over again and it keeps bouncing, what happens when it breaks? When it breaks, is it just a little drop or is it a flood gate opening like a dam breaking? And the answer is it's generally a dam breaking."

Traders must watch the 6,790 level on a closing basis today. Intraday piercings are common and often result in "wicks" on the candle, but a confirmed daily close below 6,790 could trigger a waterfall event, opening the door for significantly lower prices.

Similarly, the Nasdaq is slated to open down over 1.8%. It is threatening its own support at 22,300. A breach here exposes the next downside target of 21,800. These indices are currently exhibiting signs of distribution—a rounded top pattern that often precedes a trend reversal.

Commodities: The Tale of Two Trades

The volatility in the energy sector has provided textbook opportunities for disciplined traders. While the headlines induce panic, the charts provide clarity on entry and exit points.

Natural Gas: A Quick Strike

Just days ago, technical signals flashed a buy for natural gas. Despite the chaos, the discipline to take profits when targets are hit remains paramount. Gareth confirmed a swift exit from this trade this morning, banking a 13% gain in just two days.

"Who am I to look a gift horse in the mouth… In two days, 13%… It doesn't mean it can't go higher. Natural gas could go much higher. But in two days, 13%… bank it."

This highlights a critical trading philosophy: never let greed turn a winner into a loser. In volatile markets, securing double-digit percentage gains in under 48 hours is a victory that builds long-term portfolio success.

Oil: The Contrarian Short

With oil spiking to $77 per barrel and mainstream media pundits calling for $100 or even $120 oil, the sentiment has become extremely one-sided. When emotion drives price predictions, smart money often looks the other way.

Gareth outlined a strategic plan to short oil if it pushes into the $80 to $85 range. This thesis is built on two pillars:

1. Technical Resistance: The charts suggest overextension at those levels.
2. Political Reality: With midterm elections approaching in November 2026, the White House has zero tolerance for $100 oil, as it is political suicide. History suggests that administrative intervention will likely occur to cap prices before they spiral out of control.

By layering into a short position (dollar-cost averaging) starting at an $80 pierce, traders can position themselves against the emotional crowd chasing the breakout.

Precious Metals: The Danger of Failed Breakouts

Gold and silver have suffered severe technical damage in the last 24 hours, serving as a harsh reminder of the importance of confirmation.

Silver, in particular, staged what looked like a breakout yesterday. However, it failed to confirm that move by closing above the key $92-93 zone. Today, silver is down roughly 7.3%.

"Biggest moves come from failed breakouts. What does this tell us? We are still in a pattern of ups and downs inside of this choppy bear flag."

When a breakout fails, it traps the bulls who bought the high, forcing them to liquidate rapidly as price reverses, accelerating the move to the downside.

Gold also adhered strictly to technical levels. After hitting the predicted resistance of $5,400 yesterday, it was slammed down to the first support zone of $5,000 to $5,100 today. While the long-term thesis for gold remains intact, the near-term chart suggests further consolidation or downside, potentially breaking the current trendline.

Earnings Volatility: Catching Knives with Precision

Earnings season continues to create massive dislocations in individual stocks, offering opportunities for traders who know where the "floor" is.

MongoDB (MDB): The stock is down 27-28% despite decent earnings, a classic victim of high expectations. While the drop is severe, the chart reveals a massive gap fill level at $214-215. This area represents a high-probability zone for a technical bounce. Traders looking to enter should wait for the price to flush into this specific level rather than buying blindly on the way down.

Sea Limited (SE): This stock provides a lesson in "retracing to the scene of the crime." After breaking a major trendline, the stock rallied back to test the underside of that broken line—and was promptly rejected. Now trading significantly lower, support comes into play around $85-84. For aggressive traders, a double-bottom setup exists at $95-94, but the more conservative, higher-probability entry lies lower.

Bitcoin: The Geopolitical Hedge?

Amidst the sea of red in traditional equities, Bitcoin presents an interesting technical and psychological setup. While currently down on the day, it continues to hold a flag pattern.

Psychologically, the sentiment surrounding Bitcoin has turned overwhelmingly bearish. As Gareth noted, when the crowd is 90% convinced of a crash, the probabilities often flip in favor of a bounce.

"I love the fact that there are so many bears on Bitcoin right now because the same thing can be utilized inversely… The probabilities are favoring a breakout here."

Furthermore, in a world where fiat currencies and traditional banking systems are vulnerable to geopolitical conflict, Bitcoin’s value proposition as a decentralized, non-sovereign asset becomes more attractive. If Bitcoin can stage a "jailbreak" from its current consolidation, a sharp move higher is likely. However, strict risk management applies: a confirmed break of the flag’s lower support would invalidate the thesis, necessitating a stop-out.

Conclusion: Discipline Over Emotion

The defining characteristic of today’s market is the clash between emotional narratives and cold, hard technicals. The narratives scream fear, war, and $100 oil. The charts, however, provide specific levels where risk and reward are favorable.

Whether it is waiting for the S&P 500 to close below 6,790 before assuming a crash, or waiting for oil to hit $80 before shorting, the key is patience. As the Smart Money Stocks portfolio demonstrates—up over 15% year-to-date in 2026—success comes from executing a game plan, not reacting to the news cycle.

Watch the closes today. If the "dam breaks" on the S&P 500, the waterfall event could redefine the market trend for the coming weeks. Stay disciplined, trust the levels, and keep emotion out of the trade.