My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 08/07/2026: Stocks Rally on Jobs Miss as Yields Collapse Gold and Bitcoin Break Out

Weak Jobs Send Yields Lower as S&P 500, Gold and Bitcoin Break Higher

The latest jobs report delivered a major downside surprise, but the market's response was not really about employment. It was about interest rates. The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs versus expectations for a gain of 83,000, yet equity futures surged as Treasury yields dropped and traders sharply reduced the probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike. That reaction framed Gareth Soloway's market read this morning: weaker economic data is once again being interpreted through the liquidity and rate backdrop rather than through the headline itself.

That is the key distinction for traders. A jobs miss of more than 100,000 relative to expectations would normally look negative for equities in isolation. Instead, the 10-year Treasury yield fell toward 4.6%, easing one of the biggest pressures on risk assets. The market is effectively saying that weaker labor data reduces the need for tighter monetary policy, and for now that rate effect is outweighing concerns about slowing economic growth.

The Labor Data Was Weaker Than the Unemployment Rate Suggested

The headline unemployment rate actually fell by one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.1%, which initially appears inconsistent with the loss of jobs. Gareth's focus was on labor force participation. When people stop actively looking for work, they are no longer counted as unemployed, which can push the unemployment rate lower even while the underlying labor market is deteriorating.

The labor force participation rate has fallen to 61.4%, down 0.7 percentage points since January. Prior payroll reports have also been revised lower, adding to the evidence that employment conditions have been cooling faster than the original releases suggested. May payroll growth was revised from 129,000 to 63,000, while June was revised from 57,000 to 20,000. The latest report therefore did not appear in isolation. It extended a pattern of softer labor data beneath the headline numbers.

The sector breakdown reinforced that weakness. Local government education lost 50,000 jobs, retail lost 19,000, and financial activities lost 14,000, while healthcare added 22,000. Average hourly earnings also rose just 3.2% year over year. Gareth's broader point is that heavy capital spending from the largest technology and AI companies continues to support parts of the economy and market while masking weakness elsewhere.

Why Stocks Rallied on Bad Economic News

The market is not reacting to the jobs number alone. It is reacting to what that number does to rates.

The weak report pushed Treasury yields lower and reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve hike at the September 16 meeting. With the market now assigning a greater probability to the Fed holding rates steady, financial conditions immediately looked less restrictive. That was enough to push buyers back into equities despite the weak economic backdrop.

As Gareth put it, "The markets are addicted to cheap money." That framing captures the transmission mechanism. Softer employment data reduces pressure on the Fed, lower rate expectations weigh on Treasury yields, and falling yields can support equity valuations and other liquidity-sensitive assets.

The risk is that this relationship eventually changes. If economic weakness becomes severe enough that investors begin focusing on deteriorating earnings rather than easier monetary policy, bad news may stop being good news. For now, however, the market is still rewarding weaker data because of what it implies for rates.

S&P 500 Breakout Puts 7,833 in Focus

The S&P 500 has broken above its recent consolidation, keeping the short-term structure bullish. The next level that matters is approximately 7,833, where a longer-term trendline comes into play. From current levels, that represents roughly another 1.5% of upside.

Gareth's framework is straightforward. As long as the breakout remains intact, 7,833 is the next major resistance area. Once price reaches that level, the risk-reward changes because the index would be running directly into a technical area where sellers may begin to reappear.

A confirmed move above 7,833 would open the chart further, with the next broader upside zone sitting around 8,000 to 8,100. Until then, 7,833 is the immediate decision point. Gareth remains constructive into that level, but his stance becomes more neutral once the market reaches the resistance rather than assuming the breakout continues indefinitely.

Dollar Weakness Adds Fuel to Gold

The jobs report also hit the U.S. Dollar Index, which sold off sharply after the release and is now testing a major trendline on the daily chart. That move matters because the dollar, Treasury yields, and precious metals are all moving together.

A weaker dollar and falling yields create a favorable backdrop for gold. Gold had already broken out of a long-term downsloping wedge, paused briefly, and is now extending higher. The first significant resistance level Gareth is watching sits around $4,375.

That level combines prior price structure with a historical base area, making it the first place where the breakout could face meaningful supply. The larger gold structure remains constructive, but $4,375 is where confirmation matters. A clean push through it would argue that the breakout has more room. A rejection would raise the odds of a near-term pullback after the recent surge.

Silver is also strengthening, but its confirmation level remains more clearly defined. Gareth wants to see a daily close above $64 followed by continued strength before treating the next major upside leg as confirmed. Until that happens, silver remains a stronger chart than it was previously, but not yet one where confirmation should be assumed.

Bitcoin Is Starting to Respond to the Same Macro Setup

Bitcoin is showing a similar technical shift. After spending an extended period inside a downsloping wedge, price is now breaking above that structure and moving through the $65,000 area.

Gareth's near-term lean is bullish, even though his longer-term view remains more cautious. The first meaningful resistance level is $67,000. If Bitcoin can work through that area, the next upside level comes in around $71,000, followed by a larger near-term objective near $77,000.

The important point is not simply that Bitcoin is rallying. It is that Bitcoin, gold, equities, Treasury yields, and the dollar are all responding to the same macro catalyst. Falling yields and a weaker dollar are increasing demand for assets that tend to benefit when liquidity expectations improve.

That makes Bitcoin's breakout more significant than an isolated crypto move. If the dollar continues weakening and yields remain under pressure, the macro backdrop stays supportive. If those relationships reverse, the Bitcoin breakout becomes more vulnerable.

Earnings Volatility Creates Several Technical Setups

Outside the macro picture, earnings continue to generate large individual-stock moves. Atlassian was one of the strongest examples, surging sharply after earnings following a long decline from its previous highs. Gareth identified resistance between approximately $167 and $176, where historical price structure could begin to slow the recovery.

Airbnb is also pushing higher following earnings, with trendline resistance near $170. Twilio has recovered as well, with an important inside pivot sitting near $275 to $276. These are not levels to chase simply because the stocks are moving. They are areas where the charts begin to offer more defined risk-reward.

The Trade Desk sits on the opposite side of the earnings spectrum. Following weaker earnings, revenue, and guidance, the stock fell sharply and returned to price levels last seen years ago. Gareth identified a downsloping trendline near $12 as the technical level that matters most from here.

Microsoft presents one of the cleaner swing setups among the mega-cap names. A gap fill near $507 sits just below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement around $512. That creates a tight resistance zone between $507 and $512. When two independent technical factors converge in a narrow range, the area becomes more important than either level would be on its own.

Bottom Line

The jobs report was the catalyst, but the labor data itself was not the entire trade. The more important reaction came through Treasury yields, Federal Reserve expectations, and the U.S. dollar. Those moves helped push the S&P 500 higher, strengthened the breakout in gold, and supported Bitcoin's move out of its downsloping wedge.

That leaves traders with a cleaner framework for what comes next. The S&P 500 remains constructive toward 7,833. Gold is approaching resistance near $4,375. Silver still needs confirmation above $64. Bitcoin has $67,000 as its first major test, with $71,000 and $77,000 above it if the breakout continues.

The market is still treating weaker economic data as supportive because lower rates matter more than the slowdown itself. That is the relationship to watch. If yields remain under pressure and the dollar continues weakening, the current breakouts have room to extend. If that transmission begins to reverse, the bullish response to today's jobs report becomes much less durable.

Read yesterday’s gameplan report below:

https://verifiedinvesting.com/blogs/live-show-recap/my-trading-game-plan-revealed-08-06-2026-tech-chip-earnings-rout-nasdaq-divergence-and-high-probability-trading-setups