My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 09/10/2026: Oil Spike Pushes Yields Toward 5%, S&P 7570 Support, Gold 4300 Watch

Oil surged through $100 Thursday morning as escalating Middle East tensions forced inflation risk back to the center of the market. The 10-year Treasury yield responded by pushing above 4.90%, putting the 5% area back in play.

Yet the S&P 500 has not broken.

That is the tension Gareth Soloway focused on in Thursday’s My Trading Game Plan Revealed. Oil and yields are delivering a much more aggressive macro warning than equities are currently confirming. Until the S&P loses the support underneath it, the bearish headline and the bearish chart are not yet the same thing.

The market’s decision point is no longer whether oil is inflationary. It is whether rising oil and yields become strong enough to break equity structure.

Oil Above $100 Changes the Inflation Conversation

WTI crude pushed north of $100 during the morning session, extending its rally from the August 26 low to roughly 26%.

The next technical area on Gareth’s chart sits near $104.

The size of the move matters because higher energy prices can work their way through transportation, production, and consumer costs. That makes the oil rally more than an isolated commodity move. It creates another inflation input just as the Federal Reserve approaches its next policy decision.

Thursday’s PPI report complicated that picture rather than resolving it. Headline PPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core PPI came in at 0.2%, below the 0.3% expectation cited during the show.

Under normal circumstances, the softer core number would ease some inflation pressure. Oil is pushing in the opposite direction.

That conflict is showing up most clearly in Treasury yields.

The 10-Year Is Now Pressing the 5% Decision Point

The 10-year Treasury yield extended Wednesday’s breakout and traded as high as roughly 4.92% Thursday morning.

That leaves the 5% area as the next major technical test.

The level carries more weight than the round number alone. It reaches back toward the major yield highs from 2023, making it a longer-term resistance area rather than simply a psychological threshold.

A rejection there would leave the broader resistance structure intact.

A confirmed move through it would be a materially different signal.

That is why the yield chart matters more than Thursday’s individual economic print. PPI can influence expectations for the Fed, but the bond market is already processing the combined effects of inflation data, rising oil, government borrowing, and policy uncertainty.

Friday’s CPI release becomes the next major input into that framework.

The S&P Has Not Confirmed the Macro Warning

For all the pressure coming from oil and bonds, Gareth’s S&P 500 chart remains constructive while price holds approximately 7,570 to 7,575.

That zone is the line in the sand.

It lines up with previous pivot structure and has already acted as support on recent tests. The broader pullback is also still contained within the bull-flag structure Gareth has been tracking.

That creates a clean separation between concern and confirmation.

Oil above $100 is a concern.

The 10-year approaching 5% is a concern.

Neither becomes a confirmed bearish equity break while the S&P continues holding its support.

A decisive loss of 7,570 to 7,575 would change that read and give the macro pressure much stronger technical confirmation. Until then, Gareth continues to treat weakness into that zone as an area to watch for a potential reaction rather than assuming the index has already entered a larger breakdown.

That restraint is the important part of the setup. The headlines are increasingly bearish. The chart has not fully agreed yet.

Gold Is Confirming the Yield Pressure

Gold is supplying a different signal.

Despite geopolitical stress and rising inflation concerns, the metal sold off as the dollar and Treasury yields strengthened.

Technically, Gareth is watching approximately $4,300 as the neckline of a developing head-and-shoulders structure.

The pattern has not triggered while that neckline holds.

A confirmed close beneath it would activate the bearish structure and put the measured-move area near $4,000 back in focus, with approximately $3,900 below that as a deeper technical objective.

Silver is sitting in a similar position around its own neckline near $63.70.

The important distinction is confirmation. A bearish pattern sitting on support is still only a setup. The break is what changes the probabilities.

That same logic applies across the morning’s markets.

Bitcoin Is Losing Structure Too

Bitcoin added another piece to the risk-off picture by breaking beneath the ascending channel Gareth had been tracking.

The next downside areas are approximately $76,200 and $75,500, with the latter carrying greater significance because it lines up with the recent swing low.

Holding that area would keep Bitcoin inside its broader recent range.

A confirmed break beneath it would weaken the structure further and leave fewer nearby technical supports between price and the next downside levels.

Again, the chart is more useful than assuming what happens next. The channel break has occurred. The larger support test has not.

Oracle Shows Why Waiting Matters

Oracle offers the cleaner single-stock version of the same lesson.

Ahead of earnings, the stock was trading near $160, almost exactly between Gareth’s major support near $140 and resistance near $180.

There is little technical advantage in the middle of that range.

Rather than trying to predict the earnings reaction, Gareth’s framework is to let price make the first move. A push toward $180 brings major resistance into play. A drop toward $140 brings major support into play.

The information improves after volatility creates location.

That is the same discipline running through the broader market Thursday: do not confuse a dramatic headline with a completed technical signal.

The Bottom Line

Oil above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5% have materially raised the pressure on equities.

But the S&P 500 still has one important vote left.

As long as roughly 7,570 to 7,575 holds, the index has not confirmed the message coming from oil and bonds. Lose that support, and the macro warning gains technical confirmation. Hold it while yields reject 5%, and the market has room to absorb considerably more bad news than the headlines suggest.

That is the framework going into CPI.

The pressure is obvious.

The break is not.