S&P 500 Targets 8,000 as AI Earnings, Netflix Weakness and Treasury Yields Shape the Trading Game Plan

October 21, 2026 | My Trading Game Plan Revealed | Gareth Soloway

The S&P 500 continues to hold its bullish technical structure, with an upside target near 8,000 remaining in play. However, the latest earnings reactions are producing a much more divided picture beneath the broader market's strength. Technology-related buying is supporting sentiment, Netflix is breaking through important chart support, and Treasury yields are approaching a potential technical turning point. In Wednesday's My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, focused on the levels that could determine where traders find opportunity as earnings season develops.

The central theme is that the broader market can remain bullish while individual stocks present very different trading setups. Gareth's approach continues to emphasize technical confluence, patience around major price levels, and the importance of managing risk when volatility accelerates. With another Treasury auction and major corporate earnings on the calendar, traders have several catalysts capable of testing the market's current momentum.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Bullish Trend Points Toward 8,000

The S&P 500 continues to show resilience, with futures trading near their overnight highs during Gareth's morning analysis. A pullback in crude oil helped support the early move in equities, illustrating how changes in energy prices can influence broader market sentiment. While earnings headlines continue to drive individual stocks, the index's underlying technical structure remains constructive.

On the futures chart, Gareth identified 7,790 as an important near-term pivot, corresponding to the previous session's high. A sustained move above that level would strengthen the bullish case and potentially attract additional buying interest. The daily chart also continues to respect an ascending trend line that has supported the advance. As long as that structure holds, Gareth sees room for the S&P 500 to advance toward 8,000 or slightly higher.

That outlook remains conditional on the chart maintaining its current structure. A failure to sustain a breakout above 7,790 would weaken the immediate momentum signal, while a breakdown through the rising trend line would call for a broader reassessment. For now, the market has given Gareth little technical reason to abandon his bullish bias, even as individual sectors and stocks experience sharp earnings-related moves.

AI Stock Rally: Earnings Strength Creates a Resistance Setup Near \$171.85

One of the morning's more notable developments was a sharp premarket advance in an AI-related technology stock following earnings. According to the draft's reported levels, shares moved from approximately \$148 at the previous close toward \$160 before the opening bell. The strength helped ease some concerns surrounding the sustainability of AI-related spending and provided another source of support for technology sentiment.

Gareth's attention was directed toward resistance at \$171.85, where an unfilled gap, previous pivot high, and historical trend line converge. That combination makes the area technically significant if the stock continues to advance. A rally into resistance following an already substantial earnings move could create conditions for a short-term reversal, particularly if buying momentum begins to fade.

The proposed setup is specifically a potential day-trade short rather than a broader bearish call on the company or the AI sector. A test of \$171.85 would need to be evaluated alongside intraday price action, with a sustained move through resistance weakening the reversal thesis. The broader lesson is that strong earnings momentum can carry a stock considerably higher before a meaningful resistance level comes into play.

Netflix Stock Analysis: Breakdown Opens Support Zone Near $61.20–$62.10

Netflix presented a different technical picture following its earnings report, with shares declining approximately 5% in premarket trading and moving below a significant July 2026 pivot low. The breakdown placed the stock at new 52-week lows according to the morning analysis, raising the possibility of additional selling pressure before buyers attempt to regain control.

Gareth identified a potential downside move toward \$61.50, with particular attention on an unfilled gap between \$61.20 and \$62.10. That gap overlaps with other historical chart structures, including a descending trend line extending back to April 2025 and a double-bottom area just below. Together, these levels create a potential support zone for traders evaluating a swing-trade rebound.

The breakdown below the July pivot remains the immediate bearish signal. A move into the lower support zone could become more interesting if selling pressure begins to stabilize and price demonstrates a meaningful reaction. A failure to hold that area would weaken the potential long setup and leave the stock vulnerable to further downside. Gareth's framework favors waiting for price to approach the planned level rather than assuming the initial earnings decline has already created a bottom.

AT&T Earnings Selloff: Gap Support and the \$20.60 Level

AT&T also experienced selling pressure following its earnings release, bringing several lower support levels into focus. Gareth highlighted a gap-fill area and technical shelf between \$21.13 and \$21.91 as the first zone worth evaluating. Historical trading activity around that range makes it a potential area where buyers could begin to respond to the decline.

An additional support level near \$20.60, followed by a previous pivot low, gives the chart a layered structure. These secondary levels help define where the initial support thesis may weaken and where another potential reaction could develop. They do not guarantee that the stock will stop falling, particularly during an earnings-driven move when volatility can remain elevated.

For Gareth, the presence of multiple nearby technical levels improves the ability to plan a trade before entering it. Traders can evaluate the distance between support, potential downside risk, and an appropriate profit objective rather than reacting to the selloff without a defined framework. If the first support zone fails decisively, the next lower levels become relevant, but any new entry still requires its own risk assessment.

10-Year Treasury Yield Outlook: Bear Flag and 4.7% Technical Target

The bond market remains an important part of Gareth's broader outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield has been consolidating after a downward move, creating what he identified as a potential bear flag. This pattern suggests that yields could continue lower if the consolidation resolves to the downside, although confirmation remains necessary before treating that outcome as established.

A larger potential head-and-shoulders formation adds another layer to the analysis. Gareth identified 4.7% as a possible downside objective if the pattern completes and breaks its neckline. Historical pivot levels around 4.7% provide additional technical context for that target. Until the neckline breaks, however, the formation remains developing rather than confirmed.

The macro backdrop adds significance to these levels. Gareth discussed global government debt concerns, including pressure in European bond markets, while noting that the United States continues to benefit from comparatively stronger economic growth. A reported \$13 billion 20-year Treasury auction scheduled for 1 p.m. ET provides another potential catalyst for bond-market volatility. Auction demand and subsequent yield movements could influence interest-rate-sensitive sectors and broader equity sentiment.

Meta and Tesla Earnings: Key Stock Levels to Watch

With Meta and Tesla earnings highlighted on the calendar in the morning's analysis, Gareth outlined potential technical scenarios for both stocks. The emphasis was on identifying relevant price zones ahead of a possible earnings reaction, allowing traders to evaluate the resulting move against established chart structures.

For Meta, Gareth identified the \$650 area as a potential support region following a sufficiently large decline. A gap fill near \$665 and an intersecting descending trend line add technical context to that zone. If shares instead rally sharply, resistance along a trend line connecting previous highs could become relevant for a short-term reversal setup. In either direction, the size of the earnings move and the stock's reaction at the identified levels would help determine whether a trade develops.

Tesla's chart presents a different set of watchpoints. Gareth highlighted resistance just below \$400 along a descending trend line, while identifying \$350 as an important support area in the event of a negative earnings reaction. Optimism surrounding AI, robotics, and autonomous driving could influence investor expectations, but the technical levels provide a more defined framework for assessing how the stock responds to the report.

Gold, Silver and Natural Gas: Commodity Technical Levels

Gold remains technically vulnerable following a break below its rising trend line. Although prices were attempting a modest rebound during the morning session, the broken trend line now represents potential overhead resistance. A sustained recovery above that area would improve the short-term picture, while rejection could reinforce the recent breakdown.

Gareth also pointed to an interesting divergence between gold and Treasury yields. Lower yields can provide support for gold by reducing the relative appeal of interest-bearing assets, yet gold's chart has shown weakness even as the 10-year yield develops a potentially bearish formation. That divergence suggests other forces may be influencing the metal, and Gareth's analysis gives priority to the immediate technical structure rather than assuming the historical relationship must hold.

Silver continues to face its own resistance, with \$60 identified as an important level to reclaim before the technical outlook improves. Natural gas, meanwhile, has declined for six consecutive sessions and is approaching a longer-term ascending trend line near the 2.73 area. Gareth used the move to illustrate the value of taking partial profits during rallies and reassessing positions as prices return to support. Reducing exposure during strength can create flexibility, although adding to a declining position still requires careful attention to risk and potential support failure.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: \$87,200 Breakout Could Target $95,000–$97,000

Bitcoin continues to hold an important support structure despite repeated tests of the same technical area. Gareth viewed that resilience as constructive, particularly given the pressure seen across several other markets. Buyers have continued to defend the level, although a sustained move higher is still needed to strengthen the bullish outlook.

The next significant upside level is approximately \$87,200, where a previous pivot creates resistance. A confirmed breakout above that area could open the door to a larger advance toward $95,000–$97,000, based on the technical targets Gareth outlined. Those objectives remain conditional on Bitcoin clearing resistance and sustaining the move.

A breakdown below the repeatedly tested support line would change the near-term outlook and weaken the bullish setup. The repeated tests make the level especially important because a market that continues returning to support without generating a meaningful rebound may eventually exhaust buying interest. For now, Gareth's analysis identifies a defined support-and-breakout framework rather than an unconditional bullish forecast.

Gareth Soloway's Trading Strategy: Confluence, Discipline and Risk Management

A recurring theme throughout the session was the importance of separating emotional reactions from technical decision-making. Earnings reports, economic headlines, and market narratives can produce substantial volatility, but Gareth's process begins with identifying areas where several independent chart structures point toward the same potential reaction.

Gap fills, pivot highs and lows, trend lines, and historical support zones form the foundation of that approach. When several factors converge near one price, the area may deserve greater attention than a level supported by only one technical reference. Confluence can improve the quality of a setup, but it cannot eliminate uncertainty or guarantee a favorable outcome.

Gareth compared disciplined trading to the approach used by a casino, where decisions are based on a repeatable process rather than the outcome of an individual hand. In financial markets, however, a statistical edge must be demonstrated over a meaningful sample of trades, and losses remain unavoidable even with a disciplined strategy. The practical takeaway is to define a setup, establish acceptable risk, and judge execution by the quality of the decision rather than the result of one trade.

Bottom Line: S&P 500 Strength Holds, but Earnings and Bond Yields Will Test the Trend

Gareth's October 21 Game Plan maintains a bullish outlook for the S&P 500 while recognizing that individual stocks and asset classes are sending different technical signals. The 7,790 futures pivot and the rising daily trend line support the potential advance toward 8,000. At the same time, earnings volatility is bringing several individual stocks closer to important support and resistance areas, while a developing Treasury yield pattern could have broader implications for market sentiment.

The most important levels now provide a framework for evaluating the next move: \$171.85 resistance in the AI-related earnings setup, $61.20–$62.10 support on Netflix, layered support near \$21.13 and \$20.60 on AT&T, and a possible 4.7% target on the 10-year Treasury yield. Bitcoin's \$87,200 breakout level adds another important watchpoint as traders assess whether risk appetite can extend beyond equities.

The broader market trend remains constructive, but the coming sessions will test the strength of that structure. Gareth's approach is to remain aligned with the prevailing trend while evaluating each new setup on its own technical merits. The levels establish the plan. Price action determines whether the opportunity is there.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for educational and informational purposes only and reflects technical market analysis, not personalized financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading and investing involve substantial risk, including possible loss of principal. Technical patterns and price targets are not guarantees of future performance. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their financial circumstances and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.