Trading The Close Market Recap - 02/04/2026

The markets are telling a tale of two distinct environments: the high-octane volatility of earnings season and the precarious technical structures of the broader indices. In today’s special double-feature edition of Earnings Central Live and Trading The Close, Verified Investing’s Lawton Ho—filling in for Pro Trader Drew Dosek who is on paternity leave—navigated traders through a minefield of corporate reports and critical technical breakdowns.

With Wall Street heavyweights like Google (Alphabet) and Qualcomm reporting alongside high-beta names like Symbiotic, the session provided a masterclass in level-to-level trading. Simultaneously, the broader market indices are testing the boundaries of significant wedge patterns, signaling potential shifts in the macroeconomic landscape.

The Art of Earnings: Precision in Volatility

Earnings season is often described as a coin flip by retail traders, but professional analysis reveals it to be a game of probability and precision. Lawton Hill emphasized the necessity of preparation, providing "aggressive," "standard," and "conservative" levels for stocks moments before their numbers hit the wire.

As Lawton noted during the broadcast: "Earnings can be insane. That's why I give you guys so many different levels. I give you a really aggressive level, a more passive slash normal level. And then finally, conservative levels."

This tiered approach allows traders to react to the magnitude of the move rather than predicting the earnings number itself. The effectiveness of this strategy was on full display with today's roster of reporting companies.

Google (Alphabet): The Reversal Play

Google’s earnings report triggered immediate volatility. The stock initially flushed, bypassing the first aggressive support levels before finding its footing. Lawton had identified a critical conservative support zone around $319.31 and a secondary level at $314.61.

The price action validated the discipline of waiting for the levels. After testing the lower bounds, Google staged a massive intraday reversal. As Lawton highlighted in the recap, the stock bounced over 8.5% from the identified conservative level. This move illustrates a key lesson: initial knee-jerk reactions in earnings often overshoot, providing opportunities for traders who have pre-calculated support zones to enter when the selling pressure exhausts itself.

Symbiotic and COHR: Capitalizing on Extremes

Symbiotic (SYM) offered a textbook example of playing the short side of resistance. The stock spiked immediately following its report, hitting Lawton’s identified resistance level of $62 with pinpoint accuracy.

"Symbiotic literally hitting $62… Look at that flush. $2 pullback exactly from that region," Lawton observed during the live session. The stock eventually retraced 9% from that level, rewarding traders who set their orders at the pre-defined technical barrier rather than chasing the initial green candle.

Similarly, COHR provided the long setup of the day. The stock dropped into its support zone, tagging the $168 region. The subsequent reaction was explosive, with the stock rallying approximately 13% from the level. These double-digit percentage moves within minutes of an earnings release underscore why volatility, when managed with precise technicals, is a trader's greatest asset.

Semiconductor Shockwaves: A Sector Under Siege

While individual earnings provided tactical opportunities, the semiconductor sector as a whole is flashing warning signs. The sector, which has led the bull market for years, is showing significant technical deterioration.

AMD and the 17% Plunge

AMD’s earnings reaction sent shockwaves through the chip sector, with the stock plummeting over 17.5%. Such a violent move forces a re-evaluation of support. Lawton identified a gap fill at $198 as the immediate area of interest, with a more structural support level waiting at $164.

The magnitude of this sell-off is not just an isolated event for AMD; it impacts the sentiment for the entire industry, dragging down peers and forcing a re-pricing of risk assets.

NVIDIA: The Head and Shoulders Looming

NVIDIA, the undisputed king of the AI rally, is tracing out a potentially bearish pattern that traders must monitor. Lawton pointed to a clear head and shoulders formation on the daily chart. The stock has made multiple attempts to break the neckline, a critical support shelf.

If this pattern confirms with a breakdown, the measured move target is significantly lower, potentially down to the $130 area. For traders looking to manage risk or initiate short positions, the strategy remains consistent: wait for a confirmed break of the neckline or a retrace back up to resistance before entering. Anticipating the break can be dangerous, as support often holds longer than bears expect.

Micron’s Precipitous Decline

Micron (MU) has experienced a severe correction, falling approximately 17% since late January and down over 20% from highs during the session. Despite a post-market bounce aided by Google’s recovery, the technical damage is visible.

For those looking to fade the bounce, Lawton identified a gap fill at $418.54 as a prime resistance level for day trades, with a secondary double-top resistance at $500.

Market Indices: The Wedge Break and Confirmation

The broader market is currently defined by wedge patterns—formations that typically signal a coiling of price before a significant breakout or breakdown.

S&P 500: Bending but Not Breaking

The S&P 500 sold off approximately 1.5% during the session, testing the lower trendline of its wedge pattern. However, a crucial distinction in technical analysis saved the bulls for another day: the close.

"The wedge has not broken. We broke below it, but never closed below it," Lawton explained. "Now we need to see it close below. And then confirmation… We want to see confirmation before we expect a further move down."

This nuance is vital. Intraday wicks below a trendline often trap bears who enter too early. Until the index closes decisively below the support line—and ideally confirms that break the following day—the bullish structure remains technically intact, albeit under pressure. Support for a potential breakdown sits near 671.53.

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): A Clearer Fracture

Unlike the S&P, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) did suffer a technical breakdown, closing below its wedge pattern after a 2.63% decline. This divergence between the indices is noteworthy. When the tech-heavy Nasdaq leads to the downside, it often acts as a leading indicator for the broader market.

Lawton outlined the roadmap for a continued decline in the Qs. If the selling persists, the first major support target is a gap fill from November 21st, representing a further 2.5% drop. Below that, the 560s come into play. However, traders should also watch for a "backtest"—a rally that retests the broken trendline from underneath—which often serves as a high-probability entry for short positions.

The "Meme" Momentum Unwinds

The market is also witnessing a harsh unwinding of momentum in high-flying names that have exhibited "meme-like" behavior.

Sandisk and Oracle

Lawton highlighted the price action in Sandisk, noting its meteoric 300% rise followed by extreme volatility. The stock faced a massive red candle, dropping 16-17% in a single session. This type of price action—a "doji" candle followed by a heavy selling day—often marks a local top in sentiment. A break below the $500 level would likely trigger a deeper correction of approximately 14%.

Oracle (ORCL) is displaying a similar, albeit less extreme, pattern. After a massive run-up, it is beginning to roll over. However, unlike the pure momentum plays, Oracle approaches a level of value. Lawton pointed to a gap fill from April 30th around $140 as a potential long entry, citing the company's dividend and fundamental stability as reasons to look for a bounce at that specific price point.

Commodities: The Safe Haven Divergence

An interesting dynamic is unfolding in the commodities market, specifically the divergence between gold and the equity markets. Typically, asset classes move in correlation during liquidity events, but gold has maintained strength even as stocks wobble.

Gold's Resilience

"The S&P stock market's at all-time highs. Gold and silver at all-time highs. That doesn't usually happen," Lawton noted.

Gold has held its ground, acting as a true safe haven. While it pulled back slightly (about 2%) from its intraday highs, it remains in a strong uptrend. This strength relative to the S&P 500 suggests capital is rotating into defensive assets in anticipation of further volatility.

Silver's Bearish Channel Retest

Silver, however, is painting a different technical picture. Lawton identified an up-sloping parallel channel that the metal had previously broken down from. In today’s session, silver rallied back up to touch the bottom of that channel—a classic "bearish retest."

When an asset breaks a support channel, that support often flips to resistance. Silver's rejection at this level suggests the path of least resistance may be lower, potentially forming a bear flag if it cannot reclaim the channel.

Crypto at the Precipice

The cryptocurrency markets are testing the resolve of the bulls, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum threatening to invalidate their recent consolidation patterns.

Bitcoin's Line in the Sand

Bitcoin has broken down from a head and shoulders pattern and is making lower lows. The critical level to watch is $69,000. This price point is significant not just as a round number, but as the previous all-time high from the 2021 cycle.

"If Bitcoin can get to $69,000 and break that, guys, look out below, because this thing could be headed a lot lower," Lawton warned. However, he also noted the heavy consolidation between $69,000 and $73,000, which should provide a dense layer of support. Traders should anticipate a battle at these levels rather than a straight flush through.

Ethereum's Downside Targets

Ethereum is mirroring Bitcoin’s weakness, breaking its own head and shoulders pattern. The next major magnet for price is the $2,000 psychological level. Should the broader risk-off sentiment continue, a test of $1,800 becomes a realistic scenario. However, like Bitcoin, the $2,000 area is likely to induce at least a temporary bounce, offering day trading opportunities for those quick enough to catch the reaction.

The Psychology of the Trade

Perhaps the most valuable takeaway from today’s session wasn't a specific number, but a mindset. During the chaotic release of earnings, Lawton repeatedly advised patience. When stocks like Google and COHR initially fell, they didn't just stop at random prices—they hunted for the liquidity found at major technical levels.

Traders who panicked and sold the initial drop, or those who bought too early before the level was hit, likely suffered losses. Conversely, those who waited for the $319.31 on Google or the $168 on COHR were rewarded with massive percentage gains in a matter of minutes.

This reinforces the core philosophy of Verified Investing: The market is a mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient. By relying on data, historical support/resistance, and mathematical probabilities rather than emotion, traders can navigate even the most volatile earnings seasons with confidence.

Conclusion

As we close the book on a volatile session, the market remains at a crossroads. The S&P 500 is bending but holding its structure, while the Nasdaq and semiconductors are showing cracks in the foundation. Earnings season continues to provide individual opportunities for alpha, even as the macro picture clouds.

Tomorrow brings another gauntlet of data, with Amazon, Roblox, and MicroStrategy set to report. Traders should keep their charts clean, their levels marked, and their emotions in check. As Lawton Hill demonstrated today, whether the market moves up 10% or down 10%, there is always a trade to be found for those who know where to look.