My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 02/03/2026: Market on Edge As S&P 500 Resistance Holds; PayPal Value Play and Palantir Risk

The markets opened fractionally higher this morning, navigating a complex landscape of earnings reactions, delayed economic data due to the government shutdown, and shifting political appointments affecting currency valuations. In this morning’s episode of My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dissected the technical landscape, offering a masterclass on how to separate narrative from price action.

As we await the ADP private sector number—which has taken on heightened importance given the postponement of the official government jobs report—traders are faced with a market that is technically stretched yet resilient. The key takeaway from today’s session isn't just about specific tickers; it is about the discipline of recognizing when the "house" has the edge versus when the market is merely gambling.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq: The Ceiling of Resistance

The broader markets are currently staging a delicate balancing act. While the S&P 500 managed a rally of approximately 0.5% yesterday, and the Nasdaq gained just under 0.6%, the technical context suggests caution. Both indices are currently trading below massive resistance zones that could dictate the next major directional move.

Gareth pointed out a critical technical phenomenon regarding trendlines: "Remember, when you break support, the line now becomes resistance on the way back up."

This principle is currently playing out on the S&P 500. The index is sitting just below a trendline connecting the "liberation tariff low" through recent pivot lows. Furthermore, a larger parallel channel dating back to the COVID lows and the 2021 bull market highs is capping the upside. For bulls, the clock is ticking. Unless the market can reclaim these levels, the probability of a rejection increases with every passing day. The charts suggest that time is running out for a bullish breakout without a significant catalyst, and failure to breach this ceiling could result in a sharp rollover.

The Dollar and the Warsh Effect

Macroeconomics collided with technicals in the currency markets this week. The U.S. Dollar has seen a resurgence, rallying on the news that President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve Chair position. The market interprets Warsh as less dovish than other potential candidates, implying a potentially more independent Federal Reserve and a "higher for longer" rate environment.

However, Gareth warns traders not to get swept up in the headline narrative. While the dollar is showing strength, the technical structure remains bearish. The recent move upward is essentially a "kiss" of a broken support zone dating back to the 2008 financial crisis—a level that has acted as a floor for nearly two decades but was recently pierced.

Furthermore, the current rally in the dollar is forming a bear flag pattern. In technical analysis, a bear flag—an upward consolidation following a sharp move down—typically resolves to the downside. Gareth’s analysis suggests that despite the initial excitement over the Warsh nomination, the reality of future rate cuts (potentially part of a deal with the administration) will eventually weigh on the dollar, aligning the fundamental outcome with the bearish technical setup.

Palantir: The "Scene of the Crime"

Palantir provided the fireworks for the tech sector this morning, trading up approximately 10% following a solid earnings report. However, this scenario offers a perfect educational opportunity regarding the concept of "retracing to the scene of the crime."

Despite the positive reaction, Palantir recently suffered a massive 27% drop in just one month. The current bounce, while impressive, is driving the price back up into a heavy resistance zone between $175 and $180. This area represents the breakdown point—the "scene of the crime"—where previous support failed.

"The charts have no agenda. They have no narrative. They just tell us what they are."

While the company’s growth is undeniable, Gareth highlighted a fundamental risk factor: 75% of Palantir's revenue is derived from the U.S. government. In an era where government austerity and spending cuts are becoming central topics of discussion, this heavy reliance on a single client source poses a long-term risk. Technically, once the stock hits that $175-$180 range, the probability shifts back to the bears, suggesting a rejection and a potential second leg lower.

PayPal: A Value Play at Historical Support

Perhaps the most compelling setup discussed in today's session was PayPal. The stock was hammered this morning, down about 17% on earnings, but this sell-off has driven the price into a technical zone that Gareth identified as his "favorite of today's levels."

When zooming out to the weekly chart, PayPal is currently trading at levels not seen since 2015 and 2016—the consolidation zone that preceded its massive multi-year breakout. In technical analysis, former resistance often acts as major support when revisited years later.

Beyond the technicals, the valuation argument for PayPal is becoming difficult to ignore. Despite missing slightly on revenue, the company still generated $1.23 per share for the quarter. Annualizing this puts the company on track for roughly $5.00 in earnings per share. With the stock trading around $43.00, PayPal is effectively trading at a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio between 8 and 9.

Finding a tech-adjacent growth company with an 8 PE ratio is a rarity in this market. This confluence of historical technical support and deep value makes PayPal a prime candidate for a swing trade or a long-term accumulation play for value-oriented investors.

Defensive Rotations: The Case for Pfizer

In a market that looks stretched and overvalued, smart money often rotates into defensive names that offer safety and yield. Pfizer, which fell on earnings this morning, fits this profile perfectly.

Gareth identified a potential gap fill level at $23.50 as a key area of interest. If the stock breaks its current wedge pattern, a flush down to this level would present a high-probability buying opportunity.

The logic here is similar to PayPal: valuation and yield. Pfizer pays a substantial dividend (6-8% range depending on price action), and it trades at a low multiple. If the broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq do roll over from their resistance ceilings, capital will likely flee high-flying tech stocks and seek shelter in these undervalued, high-yielding assets. Buying Pfizer on weakness is a strategic defensive move against potential broader market volatility.

Bitcoin and Precious Metals: The Mastery of Timeframes

One of the most difficult concepts for new traders to grasp is how an asset can be bullish and bearish simultaneously, depending on the timeframe. Gareth’s analysis of Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver provided a masterclass in this multi-timeframe thinking.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin recently nailed a bounce off the $75,000 level, a move predicted by the previous bear flag breakdown target. Short-term, the crypto asset has legs to the upside, with resistance levels sitting at $84,000-$85,000 and significant resistance at $93,000.

However, the longer-term chart reveals a looming "head and shoulders" pattern that has triggered, suggesting that eventually, Bitcoin could head much lower. This duality allows a trader to play the short-term bounce while remaining cautious or bearish on the mid-term outlook.

Silver and Gold

Silver has staged a massive bounce off technical support, but it is now approaching a "sell zone." Gareth mapped out a Fibonacci retracement that shows a confluence of resistance. The first resistance hits around $92.50/oz, but the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level—often a key reversal point—aligns with major structural resistance.

"The 61.8 looks very attractive on the short side for silver, should it get back there."

Similarly, Gold has bounced off its ascending trendline, but Gareth projects a move back to approximately $5,150/oz before sellers step back in.

The lesson here is distinct:

• Short-term: Bullish bounce in play.
• Mid-term: Bearish (expecting a lower high and continuation of selling).
• Long-term: Bullish (based on the devaluation of fiat currency).

Understanding these distinctions prevents traders from marrying a position and allows them to profit from volatility in both directions.

Energy Markets: Knowing When to Sit Out

The contrast between Oil and Natural Gas in today's analysis highlighted the importance of discipline.

Oil is currently respecting its technical structure. After a breakout and a pullback, it is holding the breakout point as support, keeping the uptrend intact. This clarity allows for actionable trading setups.

Natural Gas, on the other hand, suffered a 30% drop yesterday followed by a small bounce, creating what Gareth termed a "jumbled chart." The previous support and resistance levels have been violated in a way that muddies the water.

"When I have a no good read, what do I do? I sit on the sidelines."

This is a vital lesson. Professional traders do not feel compelled to be in every market at all times. When the "price, pattern, and time" do not align to create a high-probability edge, the correct position is cash.

Conclusion: Be The House, Not The Gambler

The overarching theme of today’s My Trading Game Plan is the transition from gambling to business-like execution. The market is full of noise—from government shutdowns to CEO interviews and political appointments. A gambler chases these narratives, hoping for a lucky break.

A professional trader, however, acts like the casino. They rely on the rigid logic of technical analysis—Price, Pattern, and Time—to identify setups where the probabilities are skewed in their favor. They know they will lose some trades, just as the casino pays out some jackpots. But by consistently applying a proven edge, they ensure that over the long run, the math works in their favor.

Whether it is waiting for PayPal to hit 2015 support, watching for Palantir to reject at the "scene of the crime," or sitting on the sidelines in Natural Gas, the goal remains the same: execute only when the edge is yours.