Trading The Close Market Recap - 11/19/2025: Bitcoin Support Test, Trendline Masterclass & Oil's Key Candle

In a market holding its breath ahead of pivotal economic data and a bellwether earnings report from NVIDIA, traders are looking for clues in the charts. In this afternoon's Trading The Close episode, Pro Trader Drew Dosek of Verified Investing unpacked the day's most critical price action, from Bitcoin's precarious perch to a masterclass in trendline analysis that every trader needs to see. Today's article will expand on these key themes, providing deeper context on the technical patterns and psychological undercurrents driving the market.

Bitcoin's Last Stand at Support

The biggest story of the day unfolded on the Bitcoin chart, where a battle between buyers and sellers is reaching a critical juncture. Yesterday, Bitcoin formed a classic daily bottoming tail, a candlestick pattern that signals a strong rejection of lower prices. Today, the market tested the resolve of that pattern, trading below yesterday’s low before recovering. As Drew explained, the integrity of this bullish signal remains, but only by a thread.

"As long as we don't have a close underneath 89,183 dollars, this bottoming tail tells us price is likely going to be going up in the near to midterm on Bitcoin."

This level, $89,183, is now the definitive line in the sand. A daily close below it would invalidate the bottoming tail and open the door to further downside. This setup is more than just a single candle; it’s occurring at the 50% level of a major parallel channel, a zone that has historically been a site of prolonged consolidation. The last time Bitcoin tested this area, it was followed by months of choppy, sideways price action before the next major leg up.

This historical precedent informs Drew’s cautious approach. While the bottoming tail is a positive sign, it's not a definitive all-clear signal. "This one single bottoming tail is not going to be enough for me to start loading the boat up on Bitcoin," he noted, emphasizing the need for further confirmation, such as a strong push higher followed by consolidation that holds above the recent lows. The risks remain significant. A failure to hold current levels could see a swift test of the next support zone around $85,000. More alarmingly, the bottom of the long-term parallel channel suggests a potential downside target as low as $60,000. While not an immediate forecast, it’s a structural possibility that long-term investors must keep in mind.

A Masterclass in Trendline Analysis

One of the most powerful educational segments from today's show was a deep dive into the art and science of drawing trendlines. Using MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Netflix (NFLX) as case studies, Drew demonstrated how these simple lines can unlock profound insights into price behavior—past, present, and future.

For MSTR, a stock that has seen a staggering 58% decline since July, Drew illustrated how connecting just two pivot points—one in May and another in September—created a trendline that predicted future price interactions with uncanny accuracy.

"Notice here when I connected just these two pivots how it shows you when price bounced off that area it came right back down to this trend line bounced, they came back down to the trend line again bounced again before plunging and then what did it do? It came back and tagged the trend line that it just broke… That's the nature, that's the movement that happens in the stock markets all of the time."

He described this behavior like a "bouncy ball," where a trendline acts as a floor until it breaks, at which point it often becomes a ceiling that price retests from below. This principle not only explains past price action but also helps identify future levels of interest. For MSTR, this same trendline projects forward to a potential resistance area around $246.75, a level that gains even more significance because it converges with a key Fibonacci retracement level. This confluence of technical factors creates a high-probability zone for a potential reversal should the stock manage a significant bounce.

The Netflix chart further reinforced the power of this tool, this time on a much longer timeframe. A trendline drawn from the November 2021 high and connected to a February 2025 pivot has acted as a major inflection point for the stock repeatedly. It marked the precise bottom of the sell-off on October 2nd, and after breaking below it, the stock returned to retest the line from underneath before being rejected. Now, with Netflix in a period of bearish consolidation, this analysis suggests the next logical target is the support level down at $101.98.

The Lingering Shadow of a Single Candle

In the world of technical analysis, not all days are created equal. Some trading sessions produce candles so large and decisive that they dictate the market's behavior for days or even weeks to come. This is precisely the situation in US Oil, which remains trapped within the gravitational pull of the massive red candle from November 12th.

Drew has repeatedly emphasized the importance of these dominant candles, and for good reason. "The reason I talk about big red candles is because you guys need to pay attention to them… those candles control price on the chart particularly for the near term."

A look at the oil chart confirms this principle perfectly. Since that massive downward move, every subsequent attempt to rally has been rejected, and the price has been unable to escape the high-low range established on that single day. This price action prison creates a state of bearish consolidation. While the market is moving sideways, the underlying pressure remains to the downside, dictated by the overwhelming selling that occurred on November 12th. Until price can decisively close above the high of that candle, the bears remain in control.

Divergence in Commodities and Energy

The commodities space is presenting a mixed but fascinating picture. In precious metals, Silver continues to exhibit relative strength compared to Gold. While both are pulling back and forming bearish consolidation patterns, Silver is doing so from a much higher position on its chart. For Gold, the key test is whether it can reclaim a critical inclining trendline; failure to do so puts support at $3,918 and then $3,700 in focus. Silver traders should be watching a series of support levels at $49.38, $46.79, and $44.26 to gauge the strength of its uptrend.

Meanwhile, Natural Gas lived up to its reputation as the "widow maker" with an explosive 4% move higher, piercing resistance at $4.70. This instrument is known for its ability to make sharp, extended moves that can catch traders on the wrong side. Despite the powerful thrust, Drew suspects this may be a head fake, with the most likely scenario being a return to a "pinball" action between the new resistance at $4.70 and the support zone between $4.33 and $4.45. The next major resistance level to the upside sits at the March 2025 high of $4.92.

Navigating High-Risk, High-Reward Setups

The show concluded with an analysis of two viewer requests, OKLO and FFIV, both of which serve as excellent case studies in risk management.

OKLO, a power-play stock tied to AI data centers, is sitting on a knife's edge. The good news is that it's holding a confluence of major support, including a long-term trendline and the bottom of a parallel channel. The bad news is the presence of a potential Head and Shoulders pattern, a major bearish formation with a measured move target all the way down at $37.09. This creates a high-stakes scenario where the neckline of the pattern (around $123.75) becomes the ultimate battleground. A rejection from that level could trigger a catastrophic decline, while a decisive break above it would negate the bearish pattern. Given this extreme binary risk, Drew classified it as a "no touch situation" for his own trading.

FFIV presents a different kind of challenge: how to trade a stock that is severely oversold. After falling from $344 to $223 in just one month, the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is at a deeply oversold 18.3. While this signals a bounce is likely, Drew cautioned that being oversold is not, by itself, a sufficient reason to buy. Instead, he outlined a disciplined, tiered approach. He identified key support at $223.99 based on prior consolidation, and a more significant long-term trendline further below. For those looking to enter, he suggested a "shotgun method": "first nibble a little bit here… at $223.99, and if price comes down and tags this inclining trendline pick up a little bit more." This strategy allows a trader to build a position at multiple high-probability levels, managing risk while positioning for a potential powerful bounce toward the $253 area.

Conclusion: A Market of Patience and Precision

As we head into a period of heightened event risk, the market is sending clear signals of caution and consolidation. From Bitcoin's tenuous hold on support to the bearish undertones in tech and commodities, investors are taking profits and reducing risk. The technical analysis from today's show provides a clear roadmap for navigating this environment. The power of a single candle, the multi-year relevance of a simple trendline, and the importance of identifying confluent support and resistance zones are not just theoretical concepts; they are the practical tools that allow traders to manage risk and identify opportunity. By remaining patient, waiting for price to come to predefined levels, and respecting the messages embedded in the charts, traders can position themselves to act with confidence when the market finally reveals its next major move.