Jobless Claims Spike To Levels Not Seen Since August 2023

Concerning economic data continues to hit as initial claims for unemployment (jobless claims) jumped 20,000 to 231,000 in a one week span. The prior 4 week average was 211,000. While this spike could be an anomaly, recent data on GDP and non-farm payrolls suggest it is a change in trend.

If people filing for unemployment are truly spiking, it suggests a move towards a weaker economy and possible recession. The key is to watch how fast initial claims climb. Do they slowly move towards 250,000 over the next few months? This would suggest a soft landing scenario. Or do they spike within weeks above 250,000 which could suggest a hard landing.

Using technical analysis on the chart of initial claims for unemployment, a breakout has occurred. Breakouts on charts are seldom slow, they usually explode higher. This may suggest a steep rise in initial claims.

The 231,000 initial claims number is the highest since August 2023.

Verified Investing analyzes data in an unbiased manner, allowing investors to get the facts and draw their own conclusions. The key is giving all the data, not just one narrative. Verified Investing prides itself on being here to support the retail investor allowing them to avoid the nonsense in mainstream media while also not getting caught up in social media fear and greed.