GAME PLAN REVEALED: Tariff De-Escalation, Resistance Levels, and Short Trade Strategies

Monday’s session opened with a blockbuster gap higher—Nasdaq futures jumped over 4% and S&P futures rose more than 3%—as news of a 90-day tariff de-escalation between the U.S. and China roiled risk assets. On this morning’s GAME PLAN, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, dissected the real story behind the rally, mapped out key resistance levels, and shared his day-trading and swing-trading strategies across equities, bonds, commodities, and crypto. Below, we expand on those insights with historical context, technical depth, and the psychological framework that separates reactive traders from consistent winners.

Tariff De-Escalation Spurs Rally—But No Trade Deal Yet

Over the weekend, U.S.-China negotiations in Switzerland produced a mutual cut in tariffs: U.S. rates fell from 115% to roughly 30%, and China’s were trimmed to around 10–15%. Although markets cheered the news with an early-morning ramp at 3:00 a.m. ET, Gareth cautioned:
“This is not an official trade deal. It’s simply a 90-day window to negotiate. If talks falter, tariffs go back on.”

Historical precedent underscores his warning: in May 2024, President Trump halted European and Southeast Asian tariffs with a 90-day negotiation window, only to reimpose duties once talks stalled. Today’s rally reflects optimism—but the underlying catalysts remain tentative.

S&P 500’s Technical Resistance and “River Theory”

The S&P futures move above 5,700 filled last week’s gap, then stalled into a multi-touch resistance zone dating back to earlier this year. As Gareth explained:
“They gap us above the river—our resistance line—and clear the way for another push, but this zone will be very tough to crack.”

Key levels to watch:

Short-term resistance around 5,740–5,760 (previous congestion).
Secondary cap just below 6,000, a break of which could propel the S&P toward its all-time highs.

Gareth’s “river theory” highlights how markets often leap over congested zones only to return and retest the broken boundary.

Market Psychology—Euphoria Breeds Counter-Trend Setups

After a 21% advance in S&P futures—in bull-market territory in under a month—“euphoria” is the prevailing sentiment. History shows panic is the time to buy; euphoria is the time to consider shorting. As Gareth noted:
“When everyone’s screaming bullish on CNBC and social media, that’s when you want to start thinking opposite.”

Contrarian positioning at extreme sentiment readings, combined with technical confluence, offers a probability edge for disciplined traders.

Day Trading and Swing Trading at Multi-Factor Resistance

Gareth’s game plan for today focuses on stocks gapping up into multi-factor resistance and shorting the mean-reversion pullback:

Identify gap-up names (e.g., +5–10%).
Pinpoint confluence zones—pivot highs, Fibonacci levels, trendlines.
Execute short day trades for 1–3% pullbacks.
Build swing-trade positions only when resistance aligns with two or more technical factors.

This “quality over quantity” approach weeds out impulsive plays and concentrates capital on high-odds setups.

Tech Deep Dive: Apple, NVIDIA, Tesla

Apple (AAPL)

Closed Friday near 207.20 and gapped to 214.50.
Short-term day trade at the double-top pivot at 214.50.
Swing-short nibble around the 224 gap-fill, aligning with the 61.8% Fib retracement.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Lagging peers despite today’s relief rally.
Day-trade resistance at 122.75 pivot high.
Monitor for further strength into the 125–128 zone before considering a short.

Tesla (TSLA)

Gapping above its up-sloping trendline near 320.
Day-trade short opportunity around 330–331 (flat bottom + pivot low).
Potential swing-short zone at 380–385, coinciding with its 61.8% retracement.

“I’m neither a bull nor a bear on any stock,” Gareth stresses. “I’m a trader—if a name hits my levels, I go short; if it reaches support, I go long.”

Bond Yields Signal Inflation Headwinds

The 10-year Treasury yield is now up three sessions running, bursting out of its parallel consolidation from early May. Rising yields typically pressure equities and reflect lingering inflationary concerns. With 30% U.S. tariffs still on Chinese imports, headline inflation and Fed-cut expectations are likely to remain challenged. Watch the CME Fed Funds futures: a June cut is fully discounted out, but July remains in question.

Commodities and Crypto: Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Oil, Natural Gas

Gold (via GLL)

Gareth’s gold topping tail off a decade-long parallel trendline delivered a 10% profit this morning.
No new longs until gold closes back above its 2025 highs.

Silver (SLV)

Holding flat despite gold’s drop—chart remains bullish.
A breakout above 25.20 would confirm incipient strength.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Broke above 68,000 but now stuck between support at 64,000 and resistance at 72,000.
Longer-term, Gareth views BTC as 80% risk asset, 20% safe haven.
Adds to shorts at 112–113k region (61.8% Fib + trendline).

Oil (USO)

Rallying on positive China news—higher demand expectations.
Short zone at 65–66, where past congestion and Fib align.

Natural Gas (UNG)

Missed short-entry trendline; remains flat.
Waiting for a clear pullback into the 2.40–2.50 zone before acting.

Conclusion: Patience, Confluence, and Probability

Today’s robust rally reminds us that headline catalysts don’t guarantee sustained moves. By blending multi-factor technical analysis with a disciplined, probability-based mindset—and by recognizing euphoria as a contrarian signal—traders can navigate volatile environments effectively. Key levels across equities, bonds, commodities, and crypto define the roadmap: respect them, trade them, and always manage your risk.

Ready to see these setups in real time? Join Gareth and the VerifiedInvesting Apex Live day-trading room—where exact entries, exits, and real-time market dialogue empower your next high-probability trade.