GAME PLAN REVEALED: PCE Impact, S&P 500 & Nasdaq Levels, and Commodities

GAME PLAN REVEALED: 06/27/2025

Published At: Jun 27, 2025 by Verified Investing
GAME PLAN REVEALED: 06/27/2025

This morning on GAME PLAN, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dissected the latest PCE inflation data, reviewed key chart levels on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and highlighted short-term trade setups across equities, crypto, and commodities. As we head into quarter-end and a holiday-light market next week, understanding these technical and macro dynamics will be crucial for positioning. Below, we expand on Gareth’s insights, add historical context, and outline actionable levels for traders and investors.

1. PCE Data and Early Market Reaction

The June PCE report arrived slightly hotter than consensus, underscoring that underlying inflation remains sticky even after volatile energy readings are stripped out.

• Headline PCE: +0.1% MoM (in line), +2.3% YoY
• Core PCE (ex-food & energy): +0.2% MoM vs. +0.1% expected, +2.7% YoY vs. +2.6%

At the same time, personal income plunged –0.4% vs. +0.3% expected, and personal spending fell –0.1% vs. +1.1% expected. These misses hint at cooling consumer wallets even as inflation inches higher.

“The cracks continue to emerge in the ice,” Gareth warned, likening the current market rally’s resilience to a glass sheet that may eventually shatter under pressure.

Despite this mixed data, S&P futures remain net positive, reflecting ongoing “buy-everything” sentiment. Yet traders should note that lighter holiday volumes and quarter-end window dressing may be amplifying price moves rather than fundamental strength.

2. S&P 500: Testing Key Resistance into Quarter-End

On the daily S&P 500 chart, the so-called “scene of the crime” retracement line—anchored to the prior correction low—sits around 6,200 today. We closed the session at 6,141, leaving about a 59-point rally needed to reach that level.

“We haven’t officially hit it yet,” Gareth noted, “and because the line is upsloping, it’ll inch higher each day—6,215 on Monday, 6,230 on Tuesday.”

Historical precedent shows that retracing to major pivot lines often precedes either a breakout or a meaningful pullback. Additionally, the S&P’s all-time high is essentially within reach; an institutional push to print a new high into quarter-end wouldn’t be surprising given routine window-dressing dynamics.

Key S&P 500 levels:

  • 6,200: “Scene of the crime” retracement
  • 6,200+ (short-term upsloping line)
  • All-time high

Traders should watch for either a decisive break above 6,200—signaling continued bullish conviction—or a rejection, which could foreshadow profit-taking once quarter-end flows unwind.

3. Nasdaq 100’s “Scene of the Crime” and Record High Breakout

Similar technical themes are playing out on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Intraday price action shows a rally into the PCE print followed by a fade, yet the QQQ remains in positive territory.

On the daily chart:

  • The “scene of the crime” retrace lies just above current levels.
  • The QQQ has broken above its upper trend line.
  • It is trading at or above its all-time high.

“Stagflation, guys—that’s the word I’ll be using more over the coming weeks,” Gareth quipped, referencing hotter inflation alongside a weakening consumer backdrop.

This confluence of trendline breakout and all-time-high test marks a critical inflection. A sustained close above today’s highs could embolden momentum traders, while failure to hold might trigger a rotation into more defensively valued sectors.

4. Dollar Weakness and the 10-Year Yield

The US dollar index continues to weaken as geopolitical tensions ease and foreign central banks diversify away from the greenback. A softer dollar generally boosts commodity prices and supports risk assets.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has pulled back and is attempting to bounce after breaking a trend line identified last week.

Key levels for yields:

  • Trend line break (now acting as resistance)
  • Potential retracement back to the “scene of the crime” level before a further decline

Historically, declining Treasury yields reduce borrowing costs and can fuel multiple expansions in equities. Watch whether yields find resistance at the broken trend line or extend their retreat—each scenario carries distinct implications for stocks and fixed income.

5. Stocks in Focus: Coinbase, Tesla, and Apple Setups

Coinbase: Nearing Short-Term Resistance

Coinbase has pierced a prior high pivot and returned into a former support zone now acting as resistance. With altcoins yet to participate in a broad crypto rally, Coinbase’s upside appears limited near current levels.

Key level: resistance trend line near the high-pivot zone.

Tesla: Wedge Pattern Building

Tesla is coiling inside an up-sloping wedge bounded by:

  • Support: ~$300 (pivot low)
  • Resistance: ~$350 (pivot high)

“Wedge patterns are periods of decreasing volatility… Whichever way it breaks usually leads to a significant move,” Gareth explained. A break above $350 could spark a bigger move higher, while a break below $300 risks a slide to $275 and potentially $225.

Apple: Compression into a Spring-Loaded Break

Apple’s price action has formed a tight wedge, suggesting an imminent breakout or breakdown.

  • Downside target on break: $170
  • Upside target on breakout: $223 (gap fill)

This coiling action offers a clear risk-reward setup for swing traders, with a stop just outside the wedge boundaries.

6. Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies: Risk-On or Risk-Off?

Bitcoin is consolidating just above its re-established support line, with defined hurdles and floors:

  • Minor resistance: just below $110,000
  • Major resistance: ~$113,000
  • Support: $100,000, then $95,000–$93,000

“The stock market is at all-time highs while Bitcoin is not… If altcoins were booming, it would show broad risk appetite,” Gareth observed. The crypto stall suggests that big-money psychology may eventually favor equities less, potentially presaging a pullback if digital assets can’t catch a bid.

7. Gold and Commodities: Navigating Trendlines and Smart-Money Trades

Gold: Testing Long-Term Trend Support

Gold is under pressure and faces its long-term uptrend from December. A confirmed break below could open a path to $3,130 and even sub-$3,000 levels.

“I love gold long-term and still think it goes to $5,000,” Gareth stated, “but anything below $3,000 is a buy for me.”

Platinum and Palladium Trades

In Verified Investing’s Smart Money Commodity service:

  • Short platinum: up 6%–7% on the trade.
  • Long palladium: profit taken after yesterday’s pop.

Oil and Natural Gas Quick-Play

• BOIL (leveraged NatGas ETF) bounce trade: +11% exit this morning
• Oil position: still holding for a technical bounce before taking profits

These examples highlight the value of clear entry and exit levels, disciplined position sizing, and readiness to capitalize on short-term commodity swings.

8. Conclusion: Strategic Patience in a Holiday-Light Market

With quarter-end flows and a July 4th holiday ahead, markets are likely to trade thin and amplify small data shifts. As Gareth reminded viewers:

“Retail investors need to stop acting emotionally… start looking at the chart to see what the probability is telling you.”

Key takeaways for traders:

  1. Respect holiday-light liquidity and window-dressing distortions.
  2. Monitor critical “scene of the crime” retracement lines on major indices.
  3. Use wedge and trendline patterns to define clear risk-reward zones.
  4. Watch the dollar and Treasury yields for confirmation of risk-on or risk-off cycles.
  5. Maintain discipline: wait for high-probability setups and execute with proper stops.

By blending macro context, historical patterns, and precise technical levels, traders can navigate the summer’s unique market environment with greater confidence.

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