GAME PLAN REVEALED: 06/30/2025
As we close out the second quarter, markets are on the move again. In this morning’s GAME PLAN show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, dissected a mix of quarter-end window dressing, looming trade-deal deadlines, critical technical levels on major indices, and a potential long-term shift in the U.S. dollar’s dominance. Today’s article expands on those themes—adding historical context, intermarket relationships, and trading psychology—to help you navigate the final trading day of Q2 and beyond.
1. Quarter-End Rally and Window Dressing Dynamics
Friday’s late-day surge in stocks was a classic example of window dressing—the practice where institutional funds buy top performers ahead of reporting dates to embellish quarterly results. After a midday selloff on news that Canada would impose a digital tax (and flare-up over the Trump administration’s response, “Okay, well then all trade talks are off,” as Gareth noted), the S&P 500 rallied back to finish slightly positive.
Window dressing typically peaks on the final trading day of a quarter. Historical studies show that from 1990 to 2024, the last session of Q2 delivered an average gain of 0.3% for the S&P 500—driven largely by large-cap tech names. Retail investors often misinterpret these moves as a fresh breakout, while savvy traders recognize the temporary nature of quarter-end flows.
Add in the seasonal calendar—with a half-day Thursday and a market holiday on Friday—holiday weeks tend to skew neutral to bullish. Limited liquidity and the absence of weekend positioning can exaggerate moves, creating both opportunity and risk. As Gareth reminded viewers, “today is the last day of the quarter… holiday weeks tend to be neutral to upside in terms of a bias.”
Key takeaway: Expect elevated volatility into today’s close. Trades based solely on institutional flows can reverse sharply when July begins.
2. Trade-Deal Deadline and Global Uncertainty
All eyes remain on the July 9 deadline for U.S. trade agreements. So far, only a partial rare-earths deal with China and the U.K. pact have been announced. With no comprehensive framework in place for major partners, uncertainty persists:
- Will President Trump extend deadlines or intensify tariffs?
- Could last-minute breakthroughs fuel a summer rally?
- Or might a lack of progress fuel renewed risk aversion?
History shows that unresolved trade tensions heighten market stress. In 2018, stalled U.S.–China talks triggered three distinct selloffs in the S&P 500, each around 5–7%. Traders should watch headlines closely and build contingency plans—especially as equity markets flirt with critical technical levels (see next section).
3. Key Technical Levels on Major Indices
S&P 500: “Scene of the Crime” at 6,215
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 is approaching the retracement to the “scene of the crime” at 6,215. This level marks the April breakout point where buyers previously emerged. Gareth advised traders to “watch that 6,215 level to see if we hit it.” A decisive close above could clear the way to the next major barrier—6,250—defined by a long-term logarithmic trendline dating back to 1929’s pre-Depression high and the dot-com peak.
Log charts smooth exponential growth and highlight multi-decade trendlines. Every previous test of this line—April 2000, October 2007—preceded at least a 20% stock market correction. While history doesn’t guarantee a repeat, the confluence of a quarter-end rally and this looming logarithmic ceiling warrants caution.
Nasdaq 100 and Composite: 5,570 and 21,000
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 QQQ gapped up Friday and is nearing its retracement pivot at 557. On the composite index, a key trendline from the March 2020 low parallels the December 2024 high, pinpointing resistance near 21,000. Breaking either level would open a short-term runway; failure could spark profit-taking across megacaps.
Russell 2000: A Stark Divergence
The Russell 2000 remains 13–14% below its all-time high—underscoring that small- and mid-caps are not confirming the mega-cap–led advance. This “thin” rally historically signals vulnerability: broad participation often underpins sustainable bull markets. Until the Russell narrows this gap, major indices face asymmetric risk to the downside.
4. Currency Markets: The Beginning of Dollarization Shift
Beyond equities, Gareth highlighted a potentially epochal shift in currency markets—a nascent “de-dollarization” trend that could reshape global inflation and trade dynamics.
Euro vs. U.S. Dollar: Break of a 17-Year Downtrend
On the EUR/USD chart, April’s breakout above a downtrend dating back to 2008 signals that the dollar’s 17-year strength run may be over. Historical precedent: when multi-year currency trends reverse, they can persist for a decade or more. A sustained euro rally toward 1.22 could pressure U.S. import costs and fuel domestic inflation.
USD/JPY: A Head & Shoulders Warning
The dollar-yen exhibits a classic head-and-shoulders topping pattern. A break below the neckline would target a drop toward ¥118—implying yen strength and further dollar weakness. Such a move would add to the narrative of de-dollarization.
Why it matters: A weaker dollar increases dollar-denominated commodity prices, imports become more expensive for U.S. consumers, and global reserve flows may shift toward alternative currencies. Even if these moves unfold over years, early recognition can inform hedging and asset-allocation decisions today.
5. Mega-Cap Resistance Zones and Sector Divergence
With indices near key highs, the world’s largest tech names also sit at critical thresholds—providing high-probability setups for both longs and shorts.
NVIDIA: $163 “X Marks the Spot”
Nvidia’s pivot-to-pivot measurement points to $163 as a logical cap. Past reactions show progressively larger pullbacks each time the stock hit this trendline. At just $5 above current levels, this zone represents a potential top before a correction.
Microsoft: $512 Parallel Resistance
Microsoft trades within a rising parallel channel, with the long-term trendline resistance near $512—about 3% above today’s price. When both price and channel resistance align so tightly, it often marks a technical inflection point.
Booking Holdings: A Short at $5,750
Booking Holdings, the online travel leader, trades against a long-term trendline at $5,750. With industry data showing travel demand stalling post-COVID and international cancellations to the U.S., a short here aligns technical resistance with a fundamental slowdown.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE): Two-Factor Short at $22
HPE’s confluence of an up-sloping trendline and pivot high at $22 makes this a textbook “multi-factor level” for a potential short if reached. As antitrust news fades, the stock may lack fresh catalysts to clear this barrier.
Divergence Reminder
As Gareth emphasized, “if a mega-cap is rallying into resistance but the Russell is nowhere near its highs, the underlying market is not as healthy as it seems.” Use these sector divergences to fine-tune risk exposure.
6. Commodities and Cryptos: Short-Term Setups
Bitcoin: 109,000 vs. 100,000
Crypto markets also face binary outcomes. Bitcoin’s down-sloping trendline rests around $109,000; support sits just above $100,000. A break to the upside could target $113,000, while a breakdown may drive prices toward $95,000–$93,000. Monitor those lines closely.
Gold and Silver: Pullback or Recapture?
Gold broke its trendline last week and failed to recapture it. A continued slip could send prices toward $2,950—an area Gareth views as a heavy swing-trade buy zone. Silver, meanwhile, has held a bullish consolidation zone. Targets between $34.50 and $34.70 offer attractive entry levels on pullbacks.
Oil and Natural Gas: Flag Patterns
Oil risks forming a bear flag after its recent chop; prolonged sideways action often resolves downward. Natural gas popped into resistance near $3.38 and reversed—if it breaks below $3.38, targets near $3.10 come into play before considering long entries.
Conclusion: Positioning for Q3
As Q2 draws to a close, markets sit at crossroads. Quarter-end flows could carry equities through key trendlines—only to be met by long-term resistance at record highs. Simultaneously, the dollar’s decade-long dominance appears challenged, with far-reaching implications for inflation, commodities, and international trade.
Whether you lean bullish or bearish, three core principles emerge from today’s GAME PLAN:
- Trade with clear, multi-factor levels.
- Respect intermarket divergences—Russell vs. Nasdaq, dollar vs. euro/yen.
- Adopt a probability-based mindset: no setup is certain, but disciplined risk management tilts the odds in your favor.
Today’s moves will set the tone for Q3. Keep a close eye on quarter-end window dressing, the July 9 trade-deal deadline, and Friday’s key jobs report. With clear levels and a strategic plan, you can adapt as markets reveal their next chapter.
