My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 02/25/2026: AI Bubble Warning, Nvidia Earnings, S&P 500 Key Levels and Value Picks

Following the calm after the State of the Union address, the markets have entered a state of suspended animation, waiting for the next major catalyst. While the political landscape offered no new tariff threats or surprises, allowing S&P 500 futures to float upward in a relief rally, the real test lies ahead with NVIDIA’s earnings report. In this morning’s episode of "My Trading Game Plan," Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, broke down the critical technical levels, the shifting economic narratives, and the specific trade setups that are defining this pivotal moment in the markets.

The AI Bubble: "Shady" Deals and Warning Signs

One of the most significant developments discussed in today's session wasn't just a chart pattern, but a fundamental shift in corporate deal-making that echoes previous market bubbles. Gareth highlighted the recent agreement between AMD and Meta, which sparked a rally in chip stocks yesterday. On the surface, the headline—a five-year deal for Meta to purchase AMD chips—sounds bullish. However, a look at the fine print reveals a structure that savvy investors should view with skepticism.

To secure this deal, AMD is issuing warrants to Meta, effectively allowing the social media giant to own up to 10% of the chipmaker. This "pay-for-performance" or "pay-for-demand" structure creates a circular economic relationship that often signals the late stages of a hype cycle.

"It just seemed very, very shady… and for me, it's another big warning sign that we are in an AI bubble. When you start to do this pay-for-performance, essentially, or pay-for-demand, it's never something that ends well."

This type of financial engineering can be dilutive to existing shareholders and distorts the true organic demand for the product. While the Semiconductor holder (SMH) pushes back toward all-time highs, this deal structure serves as a cautionary tale. It suggests that companies may be resorting to complex financial instruments to maintain the appearance of exponential growth, a classic hallmark of a market top.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Navigating the Range

As we await NVIDIA’s numbers, the broader indices remain trapped in well-defined technical ranges. The S&P 500 is currently hovering just below 6,900. Despite the relief rally, the upside remains capped by a larger parallel channel, with resistance sitting near 7,100. This offers a potential upside of approximately 200 points, or roughly 3%, but the downside risks are becoming increasingly prominent.

The critical level to watch on the S&P 500 is the neckline of a potential head and shoulders pattern at 6,790. This level acts as the line in the sand for the bulls.

"If major support cracks, which the charts are giving us a little bit of a probability that that will eventually happen, that's where you get your bigger downside that moves on the market to these potentially much lower lows."

Conversely, the Nasdaq Composite has completed a textbook technical maneuver by filling its gap. In technical analysis, gap fills often act as magnets for price action, and once filled, they frequently trigger a short-term bounce. This is exactly what we are witnessing today. However, should the market reverse post-earnings, the next major support level for the Nasdaq sits around $21,800.

The Yield Curve: A Fundamental Shift in Correlation

A fascinating shift has occurred in the relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and equity markets. For much of the past few years, the correlation was negative: when yields fell, stocks rallied, as lower rates were seen as relief for borrowing costs. However, that dynamic has flipped.

Today, we see yields moving higher alongside the stock market. This indicates that the market's fear has shifted from inflation to recession. Now, when yields fall, the market interprets it as a signal that the economy is slipping toward a recession, which threatens corporate profits. Conversely, rising yields are being interpreted as a sign of economic resilience.

"We've seen this flip now, where the markets say, 'Uh-oh, if yields are going down, it means the economy could be slipping towards recession.'… Down yields… is actually a negative for the stock market now."

This "bad news is bad news" regime complicates the macro picture. Traders must now be wary of sharp drops in yields, as they may presage a flight to safety rather than a liquidity-fueled rally.

Value in the Wreckage: Workday and GoDaddy

While the indices chop sideways, individual stock picking has become the primary source of alpha. Gareth identified two software names that have been decimated by selling pressure but are now approaching levels that offer compelling risk-reward ratios.

Workday: Valuation Meets Technical Support

Workday has shed nearly 40% of its value since the start of 2026, driven by lackluster guidance and fears over AI displacement. However, the selling appears to have reached a point of exhaustion. The stock is currently trading around $118. With earnings coming in at approximately $2.50 per quarter, the stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of roughly 10 to 12.

For a software growth stock that historically traded at 40 times earnings, this compression is significant. Gareth drew a parallel to PayPal, which recently surged 22% after reaching similar valuation lows.

"When you get these valuations to this level, inevitably, you get buyout rumors… You'd much rather be in a stock that has a low PE that's fallen sharply and has major support than something that has a 100 PE."

Gareth noted he would be an active buyer of Workday, citing the convergence of deep technical support, a gap fill, and fundamental valuation as a "multifactor" setup.

GoDaddy: The Gap Fill Opportunity

Similarly, GoDaddy has experienced a sharp decline following weak guidance. However, "through crazy drops comes opportunity." The chart reveals a massive gap fill level at approximately $75.30.

This level represents a high-probability entry point for a bounce. If the stock pushes slightly lower into the $71-$72 range, it becomes an even more attractive candidate for a swing trade. These setups exemplify the contrarian approach: identifying panic selling in solid companies and stepping in when the technicals align with historical support zones.

First Solar: Navigating Regulation and Tariffs

On the flip side, First Solar is facing significant headwinds, dropping nearly 20% in pre-market trading. The company cited regulatory hurdles and the impact of tariffs—costing them as much as $100 million in the next quarter—as reasons for the decline.

Technically, the stock is piercing the psychological $200 level. While not yet a swing trade candidate, Gareth identified a day-trading zone of interest between $196 and $188. This zone could provide a temporary floor for a relief bounce, though the fundamental picture remains clouded by policy risks.

Crypto Resilience and the Probability Mindset

The cryptocurrency market provided a masterclass in technical resilience this week. Despite widespread panic and calls for Bitcoin to drop to $30,000, the technical structure—a large bull flag—remained intact. Bitcoin is now staging a relief rally, and altcoins like Solana are showing bottoming tails and surging upward.

This scenario serves as a perfect backdrop for discussing the psychology of trading probabilities. Successful trading isn't about knowing the future; it's about executing on probability.

"If someone told you that you have 10 tries at a game… and you had a 75% chance of winning… you would just play it every time, every time. And that's how you train your brain from a psychological standpoint."

When a chart pattern offers a 75% probability of success, the disciplined trader takes the trade regardless of fear or recent losses. Even if the trade fails (which it will 25% of the time), the mathematical edge ensures long-term profitability. This mindset shifts the focus from "being right" on a single trade to "executing the system" over a series of trades.

Gareth noted that his "Smart Money Crypto" service has been dollar-cost averaging into altcoins during the recent dip, and they are now beginning to take profits as the probability plays out in their favor.

Commodities: Patience in Gold, Silver, and Energy

The commodities complex is currently defined by consolidation and the need for patience.

Gold and Silver: Gold remains in an inside bar pattern, consolidating its recent moves. While the long-term view remains bullish, the near-term action is neutral until the highs are taken out. Silver faces a similar technical barrier. Despite hyper-bullish calls for silver to double, the chart shows clear resistance at the $91-92 level. Until that level is breached, the prudent approach is to wait.

Oil and Natural Gas: Oil is chopping sideways, potentially building a bull flag, but without a clear edge. Gareth emphasized that he is currently on the sidelines regarding oil, as the geopolitical situation with Iran does not offer a clear 75% probability outcome.

"If I miss a trade, no big deal. There's always another trade… once you start to realize that, you become much more patient."

Natural Gas is seeing a tiny bounce, but like oil, it hasn't hit the specific "buy zone" criteria required for a high-confidence entry. This discipline—refusing to chase mediocre setups—is what protects capital and preserves mental energy for the high-probability moments.

Conclusion: Logic Trumps Emotion

As we navigate a market filled with "shady" corporate deals, shifting yield correlations, and high-stakes earnings reports, the primary tool for the investor remains the chart. Whether it is identifying the valuation floor in Workday, the gap fill in GoDaddy, or the bull flag in Bitcoin, technical analysis provides the objective framework needed to silence the noise.

The key takeaway from today’s session is the importance of viewing the market through the lens of probability. By removing emotion and focusing on the "if/then" logic of price action, traders can exploit the panic of the crowd and position themselves for long-term success. As the market awaits NVIDIA’s verdict, the game plan remains the same: trust the levels, manage the risk, and execute when the probabilities align.