My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 04/27/2026: NASDAQ Near 25,000, M2-Adjusted Bubble Risk, Semiconductor Euphoria and Fed Inflation Concerns

Once again global markets face escalating geopolitical tensions, historic technological rallies, and shifting macroeconomic policies. As we enter another critical week of earnings and central bank decisions, the technical charts are flashing warning signs that demand every investor’s attention. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan show, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, provided a masterclass in reading beyond the headlines, revealing eerie historical parallels and crucial technical levels that could dictate the market's next major move.

The Geopolitical Disconnect: Why Markets Ignore the Noise

Over the weekend, headlines were dominated by the collapse of negotiations involving JD Vance and officials headed toward Pakistan, leading to a gap down in the futures market on Sunday night. Coupled with ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, one might expect a significant market sell-off. Yet, as the opening bell approached, the markets remained remarkably resilient, hovering around the flat line.

Many retail investors find this disconnect perplexing. Why isn't the market panicking over global instability?

"And the answer is almost too simple," Gareth explained. "And the answer is, as long as the US economy is still hanging in there, as long as earnings are good and we're in the midst of earnings season, the market will look over major geopolitical issues for the time being."

This highlights a fundamental truth about market psychology: institutional capital prioritizes corporate profitability and domestic economic health over distant geopolitical fears. While oil has seen a slight uptick, it hasn't spiked enough to threaten consumer spending or trigger an immediate economic slowdown. Until geopolitical events directly impact the bottom line of U.S. corporations or force a massive surge in energy costs, the market's primary focus will remain squarely on earnings data and economic resilience.

The NASDAQ's Historic Parallel: Echoes of the Dot-Com Era

While the broader S&P 500 has already hit its upper parallel resistance, the tech-heavy NASDAQ is the chart demanding the most scrutiny right now. The semiconductor sector has been on an epic run, but we are beginning to see the first structural cracks. Major players like Broadcom and Intel are showing pre-market weakness, and Arm Holdings pulled back a notable $10 from its pre-market highs.

But the most compelling technical setup lies in the NASDAQ's broader trajectory. The index is currently trading within a massive parallel channel that connects the bull market high of 2021, the bear market low of 2022, and the recent tariff lows. It is now rapidly approaching the upper boundary of this channel, which perfectly aligns with the psychological 25,000 level.

The historical context of this level is staggering.

"What's ironic about this and spooky is that in the dot-com era, which again had life-changing technology, the internet, at its forefront, we pierced 5,000, right? And that was the top," Gareth noted. "And here we are, 25 years later from that top, piercing potentially 25,000 on the NASDAQ with many, many eerie similarities in the NASDAQ chart."

Just as the internet revolutionized the world in the late 1990s, artificial intelligence is driving today's market euphoria. However, revolutionary technology does not negate the laws of market gravity or valuation. When an index approaches a multi-year parallel resistance that coincides with a massive psychological milestone like 25,000, prudent traders must prepare for the possibility of a significant rejection.

The M2 Money Supply Revelation: A Charting Masterpiece

One of the most common arguments from perpetual market bulls is that the current valuations are justified by the sheer volume of money printed by the Federal Reserve over the last decade. They argue that because there is so much liquidity in the system, nominal index prices naturally have to be higher.

To test this thesis, Gareth introduced a brilliant technical overlay: dividing the NASDAQ chart by the M2 money supply on a monthly timeframe. This effectively strips away the illusion of inflation and liquidity, showing us the true, adjusted value of the tech sector relative to the money in circulation.

The result is a chart that should make any tech investor pause.

"And lo and behold, look at where we are. So in essence, we have now pierced the high of the NASDAQ in terms of M2 money supply, and that again is something that should ring alarm bells," Gareth revealed.

By adjusting for the M2 money supply, we can see that the NASDAQ has officially reached the same extreme valuation peak it hit during the height of the dot-com bubble. While this doesn't guarantee an immediate top—markets can remain irrational and fluid—it provides a vital "breadcrumb" for probability-based traders. When you stack extreme valuations, euphoric psychology, a multi-year parallel resistance, and the M2 money supply metric, the probabilities heavily favor that a major top is in the works.

Semiconductor Euphoria and the Psychology of Risk Management

The parabolic moves in the semiconductor space have been nothing short of historic, but the music may be slowing down. We are seeing incredible volatility in names like Marvell (MRVL), which rallied an astonishing 98% from March 30th to its Friday high, only to begin correcting sharply. Similarly, Arm Holdings rocketed from its March lows of $110 all the way to $238 on Friday before facing selling pressure.

Institutional money managers are beginning to distribute their shares, selling into the retail buying frenzy. As Gareth warned, retail investors are typically the ones left holding the bag when valuations detach from reality.

To illustrate the danger of chasing parabolic runs, Gareth pointed to the historical chart of Carvana (CAR). Much like today's semiconductors, CAR experienced an incredible, euphoric run. But when the music stopped, the stock collapsed from $850 down to $200, trading pre-market at $190.

The key takeaway here isn't just that bubbles pop; it's how professional traders manage risk when shorting them. Gareth began building a short position in CAR around $400—a level where the valuation was already completely detached from its fundamental reality of carrying $28 billion in debt and losing billions per quarter.

"I inch in, I dip a little bit in, I add a little bit more, another $100 higher. I was able to withstand it because I don't over-leverage," Gareth explained.

This is the secret to surviving and profiting from market extremes. Amateur traders often spot a bubble, go all-in with heavy leverage, and get wiped out by a margin call before the stock finally collapses. Professional traders scale into their positions methodically, ensuring they have the capital to withstand the irrational storm before the inevitable fundamental reality sets in.

Even within the semiconductor space, there are varying degrees of risk. Nvidia, despite its massive $5 trillion market cap, remains the cheapest valuation among its peers relative to the explosive 100% movers. It is currently hammering just below its all-time high, needing a decisive pierce to confirm its next directional move.

Earnings Reactions and Technical Flags

Earnings season continues to provide incredible intraday volatility and swing trading setups. Qualcomm (QCOM) made headlines with a reported deal involving OpenAI, causing the stock to pop as high as $170 before pulling back to $160—still significantly up from its Friday close of $148.

However, investors must look beyond the initial headline hype. Over the past few months, numerous software companies have announced AI deals, running up massive debt in the process. The critical question moving forward is whether these companies can actually monetize these AI integrations before the funding crunch catches up to them.

On the telecommunications front, Verizon (VZ) reported earnings that initially sent the stock higher before it faded back down. For technical traders, the intraday action on Verizon is forming a textbook pattern. Following a downward move, the stock has begun to consolidate in a slight upward channel—a classic bear flag pattern. This technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for Verizon may be lower in the coming days.

Commodities, Crypto, and the Long-Term Outlook

The commodities market is currently presenting a tale of two timeframes. Gold has gone relatively quiet, consolidating after its recent moves. Gareth maintains a high-probability target for a near-term drop to the $4,400 to $4,300 level, while acknowledging an upside risk level around $5,000 per troy ounce. Silver recently tagged a major resistance trend line at $82 before pulling back to $75.

While the short-term outlook (the next three to six months) suggests further downside for precious metals, the long-term macroeconomic picture paints a wildly bullish scenario.

"Everything we're seeing in the government with spending and lack of control of spending and money printing, all of that leads me to believe five, 10 years from now, metals are much, much higher," Gareth stated.

Elsewhere in the energy sector, Natural Gas is attempting to form a base after a rough week, breaking above a short-term trend line. To confirm a true momentum push, it needs to decisively take out the $2.90 level. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has perfectly executed a technical kiss of Gareth's underbelly target zone, pulling back slightly after reaching just underneath the $80,000 level, respecting the parallel trend line with incredible precision.

The Federal Reserve and the Illusion of Inflation

As we look ahead to Jerome Powell's final Federal Reserve decision this week—where no change in interest rates is expected—a more insidious narrative is developing behind the scenes.

Gareth highlighted deeply concerning comments from Kevin Warsh regarding potential changes to how inflation is calculated. The proposed methodology involves throwing out "outliers" from the data. For example, if rent prices experience a massive spike in a given month, that data point would simply be removed from the calculation to create a smoother average.

"He's talking about adjusting how inflation is calculated so that you basically throw out any outlier in the number," Gareth warned. "To me that screams of, ‘oh, let's not look at the elephant in the room inflation number on this’… artificially, in my opinion, this is a way that they're gonna make the inflation numbers look better to you and me."

This is a critical development for investors to monitor. If the metrics used to measure inflation are artificially suppressed by removing the most painful price increases, the official data will no longer reflect the reality experienced by consumers. This kind of data manipulation is exactly why hard assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin remain essential long-term holdings for preserving purchasing power against unchecked government spending and currency debasement.

Conclusion: Trading the Probabilities

Today's market environment requires a delicate balance of patience, technical discipline, and historical awareness. As the NASDAQ approaches the monumental 25,000 level—echoing the 5,000 top of the dot-com era—and the M2 money supply metrics flash historic warning signs, traders cannot afford to blindly chase momentum.

The lessons shared in today's My Trading Game Plan are clear: respect the technical parallels, understand the true value of assets adjusted for liquidity, and never over-leverage a position, no matter how irrational a stock's valuation may seem. By focusing on high-probability setups, scaling into trades methodically, and seeing through the noise of geopolitical headlines and manipulated economic data, investors can navigate this complex market with confidence and clarity.