My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 05/08/2026: Market Volatility, AI Shakeout and Semiconductor Surge

The intersection of macroeconomic data, geopolitical developments, and a barrage of corporate earnings has created a highly volatile environment for traders this week. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan show, Pro Trader Drew Dosek, stepping in for Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway at Verified Investing, provided a masterclass on navigating these choppy waters. From a surprising jobs report to seismic shifts in the artificial intelligence landscape, today's analysis highlighted the critical importance of relying on technical levels rather than getting swept up in market narratives.

Today's article dives deeper into the technical setups and macro themes discussed on the show, offering traders the historical context and analytical framework needed to capitalize on current market conditions.

Macro Forces: The Jobs Market and Geopolitical Whispers

Before the opening bell, the broader markets were jolted by a significantly hotter-than-expected jobs report. Economists had modeled for 55,000 new jobs created, but the actual data posted an initial 115,000. In a traditional environment, a red-hot labor market might spark fears of inflation and subsequent interest rate hikes, sending equities lower. However, the markets absorbed this data with remarkable resilience, popping up and pushing higher in pre-market action.

Interestingly, the 10-year Treasury yield began coming in ever so slightly off the news. This subtle pullback in yields provided the exact breathing room equities needed to maintain their upward trajectory.

Adding to the macro complexity are reports of a potential peaceful resolution or deal between Iran and the U.S. heading into the weekend. Geopolitical risk premiums have been heavily priced into the energy sector, and any de-escalation naturally triggers rapid repricing in commodities. For traders, this combination of robust domestic labor data and shifting global tensions requires a strict adherence to charts, as fundamental narratives can change in a heartbeat.

Broad Market Technicals: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Trajectories

The broader indices are reflecting this underlying strength, though they are approaching critical technical junctures that demand caution.

The S&P 500 has been pushing up aggressively, trading near yesterday's highs at 735.18 on the SPY ETF. By clearing the top end of its recent parallel channel, the index has opened the door for continued price action to the upside. However, technical analysis reveals a formidable inclining trend line resistance waiting near 745. This level connects the major pivot from February of 2025 over to the pivots that occurred in October of 2025. While a full 10-point move to hit that target in a single session is a tall order, it remains the definitive near-term upside target for the bulls.

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) presents an even more fascinating technical study. The index has been attempting to reclaim a historical trajectory that originated from the April 2025 low before breaking in January. As Drew noted regarding the psychology of these technical breaks:

"Usually, whenever parallels and or trend lines break like this, we like to go back up and retest where price has broken from."

The QQQ is currently attempting to make another entry inside this massive parallel channel. Today, that crucial value will be $708. Any daily close above that precise area starts putting the index back into its historical bullish trajectory.

However, traders must exercise extreme caution. The QQQ is undeniably overbought on the daily timeframe, with the daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) flashing a scorching 79.31. An RSI approaching 80 is a glaring warning sign of an overextended market. Resistance just above $708 should be formidable, and if the market clears it, it will simply illustrate the sheer, near-term irrational strength of the current bid.

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 (IWM) is showing relative weakness compared to its large-cap peers. Pushing up toward yesterday's highs around 287, the small-cap index faces upward resistance at $291.79. Should the broader market roll over, downward support waits on an inclining trend line at $278.18.

The Semiconductor Surge: Defying Gravity

Perhaps the most astonishing chart in the current market belongs to the Semiconductor ETF (SMH). The sector continues to defy gravity, trading above the previous two days' highs at $551.24.

To understand where the SMH might be heading, we must look at historical measured moves. The current rally is replicating a massive structural move that occurred between October of 2022 and July of 2024, a period where the SMH pushed up an incredible 245%. Replicating that exact percentage distance from the recent base puts the upside target at approximately $586.

This target sits about 36 points away, representing roughly a 6% to 6.5% move from current levels. Given that the SMH has already surged 13.68% in just the past week and a half after bouncing from the top of its parallel channel, hitting $586 within the next week is entirely within the realm of possibility.

But here is where the discipline of technical analysis separates the professionals from the amateurs. What happened the last time the SMH completed this 245% measured move?

"If history proves us anything to plan for the future, we're getting close in on that warning track for at least some pullbacks and or consolidation needed to sort out this overbought near-term RSI reading."

Following that previous historic run, the SMH suffered a brutal 28% sell-off, proceeded to chop sideways to frustrate remaining bulls, and then dropped another 36%. Traders chasing the SMH at current levels are playing a dangerous game of musical chairs. The upside target of $586 is clear, but the historical precedent for a violent reversion to the mean is equally well-documented.

Commodities and Crypto: Divergences and Lines in the Sand

The commodity space is offering its own distinct trading setups, heavily influenced by the morning's macro data.

Gold caught a slight bid as the 10-year yield pulled back, but the yellow metal remains in a "prove it" phase. Bulls need to see gold push above the critical trend line of $4,800. Clearing that psychological and technical barrier increases the probabilities of a broader upside move to retest recent highs at $4,890.

Silver, however, is demonstrating relative strength, extending itself further from its recent lows than gold. The white metal is actively attacking pivot highs from yesterday and from April 17th. Traders should watch near-term resistance at $84.18, with the ultimate target being the top of its parallel channel at $88.45.

In the energy markets, U.S. Oil is highly reactive to the geopolitical whispers of a U.S.-Iran peace deal. Despite the downward pressure from this news, the 10-minute chart reveals a V-shaped recovery forming into a bull flag consolidation. For the bullish thesis to remain intact, oil must hold $94.95 by the daily close. Combining this with the large wicks on the daily candles from the previous two sessions, holding this level could provide the momentum needed to push toward resistance at $107.48. Conversely, if a peace deal is officially announced, traders should look for first support all the way down at $85.81.

Natural Gas continues to chop sideways, building consolidation. The mandate for Nat Gas is simple: secure a position above the $2.90 level. Doing so shifts the probabilities in favor of re-attacking the bottom portion of its parallel channel at $3.28.

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin is currently consolidating sideways, but the technical lines in the sand are clearly drawn. The most immediate level Bitcoin must maintain is $79,523. Holding this line keeps the bullish narrative alive for a push up to the May 14th inclining trend line at $85,329. If $79,523 breaks, the next critical support sits at $78,574. A break below both of these levels would fundamentally alter Bitcoin's current trajectory, shifting the broader narrative from bullish consolidation to a confirmed breakdown.

The AI Software Shakeout: CapEx Realities Hit the Tape

While the broader indices push higher, the software and data sector is experiencing a violent shakeout driven by the realities of Artificial Intelligence. The narrative is shifting rapidly from "AI hype" to "AI execution," and companies failing to monetize their infrastructure are being severely punished.

CoreWeave (CRWV) serves as a prime example. The stock traded lower into the 116-115 area following an earnings loss and an admission that they are not yet profiting from their AI infrastructure. As Drew pointed out:

"Having high CapEx is really hurting the margins and potential revenue generation off of some of these AI plays."

This is the exact crack in the AI armor that seasoned analysts have been warning about. While mega-caps like Google can absorb massive Capital Expenditures (CapEx), smaller players are seeing their margins crushed. CRWV has gap-fill support at $111.09 and further support at $102.70, but the absolute line in the sand is the inclining trend line at $100. If it loses the $100 mark, the technical damage will be severe.

Cloudflare (NET) is undergoing a similarly painful transition. The stock plummeted in pre-market from a close of $256 down to $214. The catalyst? The company announced it is laying off 1,100 workers to shift its objectives toward an "AI-first" operating model. This massive corporate restructuring spooked investors. Cloudflare must hold support at $200 today. If the bleeding continues in the coming days, the next structural support levels are found at $228 (a previous pivot area) and an inclining trend line down at $181.

The Trade Desk (TTD) also found itself in the earnings gutter. Closing yesterday at $23.49, the stock dropped to $20.49 following an EPS miss, weak guidance, and a concerning margin contraction from 34% down to 30%. The chart is broken near-term. While it will eventually need to re-attack its broken inclining trendline around $30.92, the path of least resistance is lower. The major historical line in the sand is a 2018 pivot high at $15.88. Patient traders will wait for a drop sub-$16 before getting interested in TTD.

Even companies that beat estimates are not safe from the AI scrutiny. HubSpot (HUBS), a major SaaS player, beat on both revenue and earnings but offered weak guidance amid fears of AI agent incursions into their business model. The stock was punished, dropping under $200. Traders should watch for a reaction at the 2018 pivot high support of $162.20, with deeper historical support waiting at $137.30.

The Standouts: IREN's Mega-Deal and AKAM's Breakout

It wasn't all doom and gloom in the tech sector. Iris Energy (IREN) delivered the most explosive news of the morning, announcing a massive partnership with NVIDIA. The deal grants NVIDIA a five-year right to buy 30 million IREN shares at $70 per share, coupled with a $2.1 billion agreement to build out data centers together.

This is a monumental fundamental catalyst that immediately translated to the charts. IREN gapped over its near-term resistance (the January 2026 pivot high) and began testing all-time highs at $77, which aligns perfectly with the 50% area of its inclining parallel channel. When a company secures a guaranteed multi-billion dollar partnership with the undisputed king of AI hardware, the technicals often enter a phase of pure price discovery.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) also demonstrated incredible relative strength, pushing up in the pre-market to hover around the $150 to $151 area. This price action is testing a massive, multi-decade trend line connecting pivots from January 2007 to January 2021. Because the stock has already been consolidating at this $150 level in the pre-market, the probability of blowing through this resistance is high. If AKAM confirms a breakout above this line, the chart opens up dramatically. Aside from a minor speedbump at $165, the next significant, historical level of resistance doesn't appear until the January 2000 low pivot all the way up at $207.50.

Conclusion: Discipline in the Face of Volatility

The sheer volume of data, earnings, and geopolitical news hitting the tape this week is enough to overwhelm any retail investor relying on emotion or headlines. However, as demonstrated in today's My Trading Game Plan, true market clarity comes from stripping away the noise and focusing on the charts.

Whether it's recognizing the historical 245% measured move warning track on the SMH, waiting patiently for TTD to drop to its $15.88 historical support, or understanding the exact $708 value area on the QQQ, successful trading is a game of probabilities and patience.

The AI narrative is shifting from blind euphoria to a strict demand for margin performance and CapEx justification. As this fundamental shift occurs, the charts will provide the ultimate roadmap. By identifying key support and resistance levels in advance, managing risk, and refusing to chase overextended moves, traders can navigate this complex earnings season with logic, precision, and confidence.