My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 06/05/2026: Jobs Shock Sparks 10-Year Yield Spike AI Trade Unwinds and IPO Liquidity Drain

A stronger-than-expected jobs report hit the tape Friday morning and immediately reshuffled the trading landscape. The data came in well above expectations, yields spiked through a key threshold, and major indices broke trend lines that had been holding for weeks.

In this morning's My Trading Game Plan Revealed, Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway of Verified Investing broke down the immediate market reaction, the technical damage to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the ongoing unwind in AI and semiconductor names, and what a wave of upcoming mega-IPOs could mean for available market liquidity.

The Jobs Report Paradox: When Good News Is Bad News

The catalyst arrived at 8:30 AM. The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May — nearly double the 85,000 consensus forecast, and following an upwardly revised 179,000 print in April.

Strong employment numbers are a mixed signal in this environment. Main Street reads them as economic health. Wall Street reads them as reduced odds of rate cuts.

In the current macroeconomic environment, a hot labor market is the enemy of rate cuts. With inflation still above target and consumers continuing to compete for goods, a tight labor market keeps price pressure elevated — especially when layered on top of external shocks like the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. When those conditions persist, the Federal Reserve has less room to pivot dovish, and the market had been pricing in exactly that pivot.

The bond market repriced immediately. The 10-year Treasury yield crossed a line that Gareth has flagged repeatedly:

"Anything above 4.5% on the 10-year is a warning shot to the markets to risk assets, and we're seeing the stock market decline today due to it."

The logic is mechanical. As the risk-free rate rises, the present value of future corporate earnings falls. That pressure hits high-growth technology names hardest — they carry the most duration risk because a larger share of their value is tied to earnings years out. Rising yields also compound the problem at the macro level. With the national debt in the $39–$40 trillion range and roughly $7–$10 trillion in refinancing due over the next 12 months, elevated rates translate directly into mounting interest costs — a structural headwind that long-term investors cannot price away.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Trend Line Breaks and Next Support

The rate shock registered immediately on the technical charts.

The S&P 500 futures broke below the primary upsloping trend line that had been supporting the index for weeks. A trend line break is the first warning flag, not a sell signal in isolation — professional traders look for the next logical support levels before making decisions.

Gareth identified the critical level to watch:

"The next pivot point to break is this 7500 to 7515 level. If we take this low out… and we close below there, it opens the door to the next pivot point on the S&P, this low here at 7335."

A confirmed daily close below 7,515 changes the near-term technical picture materially. Until then, the trend line break remains a warning rather than a confirmed breakdown.

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has a more extended setup to unwind. After a roughly 35% gain in just two months, the index ran far ahead of its technical base. A 5–7% pullback from those highs is not only possible but technically overdue. Using Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent low pivot to the high, the 23.6% level aligns with near-term lows. If that fails to hold, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels become the next logical targets. Bounces should be treated with caution unless QQQ can recapture its broken parallel trend line with conviction.

The AI Trade: Cracks Widening in a Crowded Position

The artificial intelligence trade has been one of the most crowded positions in the market for the better part of a year. When everyone is on the same side of a trade, any loss of momentum can trigger a cascade of selling — everyone racing for the same exit at once.

Broadcom (AVGO) provided an early signal after its earnings report yesterday, falling sharply and pulling semiconductor names with it. The selling has continued into today's session. If AVGO loses the $395 level, technical analysis points to a move toward $380, with a broader unwind target at $350.

Micron is the more extreme case. The stock ran from around $300 to nearly $1,100 over several months — a historic move that Gareth characterized bluntly:

"There's so much concentration in the AI stocks that any sort of kind of small crack… is going to create an exodus that can drop some of these stocks 20%, 30%, even 40% in the coming weeks and months."

A standard technical correction from those levels targets $815. Below that sits a major gap fill at $758 — and the reason this level stands out is that it aligns precisely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire move from $300 to the high. When a gap fill and a key Fibonacci level converge at the same price, that's a multi-factor technical zone worth tracking.

The longer-term fundamental picture adds to the caution. As AI-driven demand pushes memory chip margins higher, international competitors have strong incentive to expand supply. That supply increase may take two or more years to fully reach the market, but the stock market may begin pricing in that future competition well before it arrives.

IPO Liquidity: Capital Is Being Reallocated

One of the more significant macro factors in the current environment is the IPO pipeline. A series of major offerings — including AI infrastructure companies, quantum computing firms, and the highly anticipated SpaceX debut next week — represents a meaningful reallocation of institutional and retail capital.

When large IPOs hit the market, that capital has to come from somewhere. Investors looking to participate in new listings often fund those purchases by trimming existing equity positions. The result is incremental selling pressure on the broad market, separate from any technical or fundamental story in individual names.

Gareth used two recent IPOs to illustrate what this dynamic looks like in practice when the market is already absorbing supply.

Quantinuum (QNT): The quantum computing company — spun out of Honeywell — priced at $60 per share Wednesday evening. Shares opened at $68 on Thursday, hit an intraday high of $71, and closed the day essentially flat near the offering price. For anyone who bought on the open, the first day was a quick round trip back to $60.

Cerebras (CBRS): The AI chip company IPO'd at $185 in mid-May, opened its first trading day near $385, spiked to $386, and has since pulled back to the $208–215 range. That's roughly a 45% decline from the opening day high for investors who bought into the initial excitement.

Those aren't cherry-picked failures — they're a read on the current market's capacity to sustain IPO premiums. With SpaceX's Nasdaq debut (ticker SPCX) expected around June 12 at a confirmed offering price of $135, traders should watch how it opens and trades in the context of that recent pattern. Gareth projected an opening around $185 — whether that materializes or not, the dynamic of day-one buyers versus IPO-price holders will be worth watching.

The broader point: as more capital gets absorbed by new issuance, the existing technology names that have driven this bull move face incremental headwinds. Traders who understand the liquidity mechanics have an edge over those focused only on individual stock charts.

Trade Setups: Level-to-Level Discipline

Lululemon (LULU)

LULU is getting hit in pre-market, trading below $110. For day traders, there's a gap fill just below $105 — gap fills act as magnetic support levels and can offer clean intraday bounce setups. That said, $105 is a day trade level, not a swing trade level. The broader technical picture on LULU suggests significantly more downside work is needed. Gareth's swing trade zone sits in the $80–$83 range. The distinction matters: deploying swing trade capital at a day trade level means accepting a risk-to-reward profile that doesn't fit the timeframe.

Oil

Oil is drifting lower, largely disconnected from the geopolitical headlines involving ongoing US-Iran conflict and Iranian strikes on Kuwait. Professional traders trade the chart, not the news. The chart remains technically weak, and until that changes, the news is noise.

Gold and Silver

Precious metals are under yield pressure. Gold is testing a major confluence of support at its 50-day and 200-day moving averages — if those break, a sharper technical flush becomes more probable. Silver, trading around $71, is already showing breakdown characteristics, with the technical trajectory pointing toward a $64–$66 range.

Bitcoin: Leading Indicator or Isolated Signal?

Bitcoin's chart is one of the more closely watched reads on broad risk appetite right now. After a 25–30% decline over the past month — falling from around $83,000 to the $61,000 range — the cryptocurrency is sitting on a double bottom support level at $60,000.

A technical bounce from that level is the higher-probability near-term scenario. But Gareth raised a more important question about what the breakdown might be telling us about the broader market:

"I wonder if Bitcoin is a leading indicator. Will we look back and say, wow, Bitcoin's collapse over the last week, that was the leading indicator?"

Because Bitcoin trades around the clock and is highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions, it has historically shown a tendency to peak and trough before the Nasdaq and S&P 500. A confirmed break below $60,000 would materially weaken the technical structure and bring $50,000 into focus.

Whether Bitcoin is signaling something real about equity market direction, or simply reacting to its own supply-demand dynamics, it's worth monitoring as a cross-asset data point.

The Probability Framework

Markets don't offer certainty. They offer levels, probabilities, and reactions. Gareth described his own approach to trading in terms traders at every level can apply:

"It's all about probability, which then means do I have more wins than losses, and that's the ultimate answer. I want to be the house, the casino, gamblers come into my door. Some will win, but a majority don't, and I'm taking home the bacon on a consistent basis."

That framing is worth anchoring to on a day like today. Identifying 7,515 on the S&P 500, $758 on Micron, or $60,000 on Bitcoin doesn't guarantee a bounce. It identifies areas where the mathematical odds of a reaction are skewed in a trader's favor. The discipline is refusing to act before price arrives at those levels — waiting for Lululemon to hit $80 instead of chasing it at $105, letting Broadcom unwind to $350 before sizing in, or watching Bitcoin hold or fail $60,000 before making a directional bet.

Heading Into Next Week

Heading into next week, the discipline remains unchanged. Whether the key zone is 7,515 on the S&P 500, $758 on Micron, or $60,000 on Bitcoin, wait for price to arrive, define the risk, and let confirmation determine the trade.

Next week brings the SpaceX IPO, continued yield pressure from a resilient labor market, and ongoing technical work in the AI and semiconductor space. Trade the levels. Watch how new supply gets absorbed. Let price confirm the setup.