My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 06/09/2026: SpaceX IPO, Head-and-Shoulders Risk and Key Market Levels

SpaceX is preparing for one of the largest IPOs in recent market history, oil is pulling back on renewed Iran-deal hopes, and the major indices are beginning to sketch a possible reversal pattern. Beneath those headlines, however, the real opportunities remain in the levels: multi-factor support on Apple and Alphabet, a misleading analyst upgrade in Micron, and a critical moving-average breakdown in gold.

The SpaceX IPO and the Mechanics of Exit Liquidity

One of the most significant events on the immediate horizon is the highly anticipated SpaceX initial public offering scheduled for this Friday. With pre-market data suggesting the stock is already trading around $175—a substantial premium over its official IPO price of $135—retail demand is reaching a fever pitch. However, understanding how institutional money operates around such mega-events is crucial for protecting your portfolio.

Historically, when massive, highly hyped companies go public, institutional underwriters and early investors require a stable, optimistic broader market environment to distribute shares into strong public demand. This process requires what is known in trading circles as "exit liquidity."

As Gareth argued during the show, large underwriters and early investors have a strong incentive to see constructive market sentiment ahead of the debut. That does not guarantee a bullish tape, but it creates a backdrop worth considering as traders evaluate near-term price action. Gareth explicitly noted: "The institutional money that is bringing SpaceX public do not want the retail investor getting scared. They need that exit liquidity."

Furthermore, from a purely technical standpoint, trading a brand-new IPO is a dangerous endeavor. Technical analysis relies on historical price action, support and resistance levels, and candlestick patterns to determine probabilities. A new IPO offers none of these. As Gareth noted regarding the temptation to chase the SpaceX launch: "I need candlesticks. I need charts to be able to figure out probability. If not, I've got no edge. If I've got no edge, what's the point, right? And then I'm just gambling."

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq: A Developing Reversal Pattern

While the S&P 500 managed a gentle float upward to close up 0.3% yesterday, and the broader uptrend of higher highs and higher lows remains technically intact, a significant warning pattern is beginning to take shape. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 are showing the early stages of a potential Head and Shoulders formation.

The Head and Shoulders is one of the most widely watched reversal patterns in technical analysis. It consists of three peaks: a left shoulder, a higher peak forming the head, and a lower right shoulder. The pattern is only confirmed, however, when price action breaks below the "neckline"—the support level connecting the lows of the two troughs.

What makes this current setup worth monitoring is how it aligns with the SpaceX IPO timeline. Several more sessions of sideways-to-higher price action could form the right shoulder, but the pattern remains incomplete until the neckline breaks. That upward drift would also create a constructive backdrop heading into Friday’s IPO.

Once the IPO is complete, the market could roll over, completing the right shoulder and testing the neckline. If that neckline breaks, the technical target is calculated by dropping a plumb line from the top of the head straight down to the neckline, and projecting that same distance downward from the breakout point.

While the Nasdaq 100 recently broke a tight parallel trend line, Gareth emphasized that this is not an immediate reason to panic, but rather the first step in a sequence: "It's what I would consider a shot across the bow or a warning sign." Professional traders are not predicting an immediate crash; they are patiently watching to see if the right shoulder materializes.

The Geopolitics of Oil and the 10-Year Yield

The macroeconomic picture is currently heavily influenced by the relationship between crude oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield. Recently, comments that an Iran agreement could arrive within two to three days helped push oil prices below $90, a significant pullback from recent levels.

This move in oil has direct implications for the broader market because of its impact on inflation expectations. When oil prices rise, the cost of goods and transportation increases, driving inflation expectations higher. Consequently, the Federal Reserve faces pressure to maintain or hike interest rates, which pushes bond yields up.

Currently, this relationship is tight. As Gareth pointed out: "The 10-year yield literally moves almost tick for tick with oil."

From a technical perspective, oil recently broke down from a bearish wedge pattern, suggesting further downside is possible. The technical bias would improve only if oil clears overhead resistance. Until then, both the chart and current de-escalation headlines favor caution. For traders, watching the $90 level on oil will be a useful leading indicator for where the 10-year yield—and consequently, the broader market—may be headed next.

Tech Giants Under the Microscope: Apple, Alphabet, and IBM

The technology sector remains the primary engine of the market, but individual charts are telling very different stories following recent events.

Apple: The Anatomy of a Bearish Reversal

Apple recently held its highly anticipated Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC). Historically, Apple stock runs up in anticipation of this event, only to suffer a "sell the news" reaction once the event occurs. Yesterday was a textbook example of this phenomenon.

Apple pushed to a new all-time high during the session but ultimately closed at the lows of the day on unusually heavy volume—roughly two to three times its normal level. The combination of a new high, a weak close, and that volume surge suggests meaningful distribution into the event-driven strength.

If Apple continues to pull back, Gareth identified the primary downside target between $288 and $287. This zone is particularly compelling because it represents multi-factor support: a significant gap fill in this area also aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. That confluence makes the zone more technically significant than either factor would be in isolation.

Alphabet and IBM: Hunting for Gap Fills

Other tech stalwarts are presenting their own technical setups. Alphabet is currently approaching a major gap fill zone between $350 and $349, which also sits close to its own 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

Similarly, IBM experienced an outsized pop followed by a significant retracement. The stock has now pulled back to a critical zone where a gap fill aligns with former pivot highs. In technical analysis, former resistance often becomes new support. This confluence makes IBM a level Gareth flagged as actionable for a potential swing trade entry.

The Psychology of Analyst Upgrades: The Micron Anomaly

One of the most instructive lessons from today's market action involves how retail investors respond to Wall Street analyst upgrades—perfectly illustrated by Micron's current price action.

Micron has been bouncing recently, with technical gap fills Gareth identified at $996 and $1,080. The stock is currently trading around $995 and caught a significant bid today following a price target upgrade from Goldman Sachs.

However, a closer look at the data reveals a notable disconnect. Gareth highlighted an analyst target that remained below Micron's current market price, despite being presented in headlines as an upgrade. As he pointed out: "Goldman is saying that based on the current price of $995 on Micron, that in 12 months, they expect it to be 10% lower."

This scenario illustrates why reacting to headlines rather than reading the actual data carries real risk. A price target upgrade is only bullish if the target sits above the current price. Until you run that basic check, the word "upgrade" tells you nothing about whether a firm is actually bullish on the stock at current levels.

Commodities and Crypto: Diverging Paths

Beyond equities, the commodity and cryptocurrency markets are flashing their own critical technical signals.

Gold and Silver

Gold is currently acting more like a risk-on asset rather than its traditional role as a safe-haven flight to safety. Following a recent flush, gold is only fractionally higher today, failing to capture the momentum of the broader stock market bounce. More concerning is that gold has broken below its 200-day moving average. If it fails to recapture this line and confirms the breakdown, Gareth's technical target points to a significant drop to $4,100.

Silver, meanwhile, is showing slightly more resilience. It recently hit its own 200-day moving average and managed a small bounce. If current support holds, silver could trade back up to the $84 level, testing a former trend line. However, if support fails and the $64 level breaks, the charts indicate a potential move toward $54.

Natural Gas and Bitcoin

Natural gas continues to respect its 200-day moving average as overhead resistance. For traders looking for a bullish entry, patience is required; a true breakout cannot be confirmed until natural gas decisively clears that moving average.

In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin is currently consolidating after a weekend bounce. The asset has formed a double bottom, with pivot low to pivot low support holding firm. The critical question is whether Bitcoin will form a bullish inside bar pattern, signaling another leg up, or a larger bear flag, which would indicate further downside. Until one of these patterns confirms, the double bottom remains the definitive support line.

Trading at the Level

Today's analysis reinforces the core approach of disciplined trading: the charts and the data must take precedence over headlines and narrative. Whether it is the institutional dynamics ahead of the SpaceX IPO, the arithmetic reality behind Micron's analyst upgrade, or the precise multi-factor support levels on Apple and Alphabet, the levels tell a story that no headline can.

By identifying warning signs like the potential Head and Shoulders pattern days in advance, traders can prepare rather than react. The goal is not certainty—it is confluence. Identify the level, wait for confirmation, and let price decide whether the setup is real.