My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 08/27/2026: Nvidia Guidance Sparks AI Rally as Rising Yields Test Stocks

Nvidia just delivered the kind of earnings report that should have been enough to pull the broader market higher. Revenue doubled from a year ago, Data Center revenue jumped 117%, and management guided toward roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028.

Nvidia responded. The S&P 500 barely did.

That gap is the most important part of Thursday's market. S&P 500 futures were up only modestly in the morning session despite Nvidia's strength because another force is pushing in the opposite direction: the 10-year Treasury yield is moving higher.

For Gareth Soloway, that leaves traders with two competing signals. Nvidia has reopened the AI trade, but rising yields are putting pressure on the broader market. Which one wins matters more than the earnings headline itself.

Nvidia's Guidance Changed the Earnings Reaction

Nvidia's initial reaction looked very different from where the stock ultimately settled.

Shares dropped sharply after the earnings release before reversing as investors absorbed the company's outlook. Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, while Data Center revenue climbed 117% to $89 billion. Non-GAAP earnings came in at $2.22 per share.

The more important number was forward-looking. Nvidia said it expects revenue to grow approximately 70% in fiscal 2028, with management describing that outlook as supply constrained.

That was enough to turn the initial weakness into a rally.

The chart now gives Gareth a roadmap for whether that enthusiasm has room to continue. Nvidia remains inside a slightly contracting wedge, with the first resistance zone around the $227 to $228 gap fill and pivot high. Above that sits another level near $232, followed by the all-time high around $236.

Those are primarily day-trading levels. Gareth's more interesting swing setup remains higher, where the ascending trend line that has capped previous rallies comes back into play. If Nvidia extends into that structure, the same line that rejected price before becomes the level he wants to reassess.

The earnings beat changed momentum. It did not remove resistance.

The 10-Year Is the Market's Counterweight

If Nvidia's report were the only thing driving Thursday's tape, the broader indexes would likely look stronger.

They don't.

The 10-year Treasury yield is climbing, and Gareth sees that as the main reason the S&P 500 is failing to keep pace with the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

There is also an interesting connection between Nvidia's strength and the pressure showing up in bonds. Nvidia continues to describe demand that exceeds available supply. Meeting that demand requires enormous spending on data centers, power, materials, labor and the infrastructure surrounding the AI buildout.

That investment is bullish for the companies selling into it. It can also add inflationary pressure at a time when oil prices and bond yields are already elevated.

That creates the contradiction at the center of the market: the same AI spending boom supporting technology earnings can also reinforce the inflation concerns keeping longer-term yields high.

For the S&P 500, Gareth's technical line in the sand remains the pivot support beneath current price. Holding above it keeps the broader structure neutral to bullish. A break below it, particularly if yields continue higher, would make the index considerably more vulnerable.

That makes the bond market the cleaner filter. Nvidia can keep rallying while higher yields make the rest of the market work much harder.

Jackson Hole Puts That Yield Question Directly in Front of Warsh

The next major test arrives Friday when Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole.

The speech matters for more than the normal parsing of Fed language. Warsh has historically argued for allowing markets to play a larger role in determining the price of money. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has taken a more interventionist approach, including expanded purchases of longer-duration Treasury securities as yields have climbed.

That puts two different philosophies next to each other at exactly the moment the long end of the Treasury curve is becoming one of the market's biggest pressure points.

Gareth will be watching whether Warsh addresses that disagreement and, more importantly, how the bond market reacts.

Initial jobless claims offered little reason Thursday for the Fed to suddenly shift its attention toward labor-market weakness. Claims fell to 203,000, leaving inflation and long-term yields as the more immediate variables heading into Friday.

The speech matters. The reaction in the 10-year may matter more.

Nvidia Is Also Reversing a Rotation Beneath the Market

The effect of Nvidia's earnings is showing up somewhere else: gold miners.

Gold miners had been one of the strongest areas of the market while AI and semiconductor stocks corrected. Newmont and other miners attracted capital as investors looked elsewhere for momentum.

Nvidia's report potentially changes that flow.

With the AI trade back in focus, Gareth sees signs that some of the money that moved into extended miners is rotating back toward semiconductors. That would help explain why miners are pulling back even though the longer-term macro case for gold has not disappeared.

This is where timeframe matters.

Gareth remains constructive on gold over the longer run because of fiscal deficits and currency debasement, but that does not mean every short-term setup is attractive. Gold is currently rejecting an ascending trend line, while silver remains underneath resistance.

The Dollar Index adds another wrinkle. DXY continues to form what Gareth reads as a bear flag, a structure that would normally support precious metals if it resolves lower.

That leaves a useful divergence to watch. A weaker dollar would normally help gold, but the immediate gold chart is still rejecting resistance while capital rotates toward AI.

For now, price structure is winning that argument.

Natural Gas Has the Breakout. Gareth Still Wants the Confirmation.

Natural gas may be the cleanest example of Gareth's broader trading approach Thursday.

Price has broken above an important trend line, strengthening the bullish setup. But a break during the session and a confirmed breakout are not the same thing.

Gareth wants to see the daily candle hold above the trend line before increasing his conviction.

If that confirmation arrives, the structure opens the door to a measured-move projection toward $4. If price falls back underneath the trend line instead, the breakout becomes much less convincing.

That wait is not hesitation. It is the trade-off between getting the earliest possible entry and reducing the risk of acting on a false breakout.

The chart has done enough to get his attention. It has not yet done everything he wants to see.

Earnings Are Creating Levels, Not Invitations to Chase

The rest of Thursday's earnings board follows the same framework.

Salesforce broke through a descending trend line, came back to test that former resistance as support, and then accelerated higher after earnings. Gareth's next important resistance sits around $239 to $240, where prior pivot structure converges with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

That confluence raises the likelihood of an initial reaction and makes the zone more important than either technical factor would be on its own.

CrowdStrike is also moving sharply after earnings, with Gareth watching a retest of its larger trend line for a potential swing setup and a nearer-term structural zone for active trading. Okta's earnings rally leaves its more significant resistance well above current price, while Hewlett-Packard's selloff is moving toward lower support and a nearby gap-fill area.

Different earnings reactions, same process: let price come to the level instead of assuming the first move has to continue.

The Bottom Line

Nvidia's earnings were strong enough to restart momentum in the AI trade. They were not strong enough to make the broader market ignore rising yields.

That is the tension worth carrying into Friday.

If the 10-year continues higher, Nvidia and the semiconductor complex may remain strong while the broader S&P 500 struggles to follow. If yields begin to ease, the strength already showing up in AI has a better chance of spreading across the market.

Jackson Hole is the next catalyst, but the bond market gets the final vote.

Meanwhile, the individual setups all reinforce the same discipline. Nvidia has resistance above. Gold is rejecting its trend line despite a potentially supportive dollar setup. Natural gas has broken out but still needs confirmation.

The move itself is not the game plan. What price does when it reaches the next level is.