My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 09/04/2026: Jobs Shock Sends 10-Year Yield to 4.8%, S&P Must Hold 7570

The August jobs report hit well above expectations Friday morning, but the employment number itself is not the most important chart for traders now.

The more consequential move is happening in the 10-year Treasury yield.

Yields jumped after the labor data and returned directly to the 4.8% to 4.81% area, a resistance zone tied to the January 2025 highs. They tested it and initially pulled back. That puts the market at a cleaner decision point than the headline jobs number does: if the 10-year remains contained beneath that resistance, equities still have room to absorb the stronger economic data. A confirmed break above it would materially change that equation.

Gareth Soloway’s broader read in Friday’s My Trading Game Plan Revealed is built around that relationship. The jobs report changes expectations around the Federal Reserve. The bond market prices those expectations. The equity market then has to decide whether it can tolerate the resulting yield pressure.

That makes 4.8% on the 10-year the directional anchor.

The Labor Report Matters Through the Fed

The economy added 162,000 jobs in August against expectations near 53,000, according to the figures discussed on the show. Prior months were also revised higher, reversing the recent pattern of downward revisions.

Markets initially treated that strength as a problem.

The reason is straightforward. A resilient labor market gives the Federal Reserve more flexibility to remain restrictive if inflation is still running too hot. That is why S&P futures sold off following the release and Treasury yields moved higher.

But the rate market did not completely reprice the September meeting. Gareth noted that the probability of a rate hike moved from roughly 52% before the report to about 58% afterward.

That muted adjustment matters.

One strong labor print was not enough to settle the policy question. CPI and PPI are still ahead, which means Friday’s employment data moved the market closer to the decision without resolving it.

The bond chart may tell us more in the meantime.

4.8% Is the Yield Level Equities Need to Survive

The 10-year yield returned Friday morning to approximately 4.8%, where a prior major high already created resistance.

Price tested the area and began pulling back.

That reaction keeps the resistance intact for now.

As long as the 10-year remains below the 4.8% to 4.81% zone, the immediate pressure on equities stays contained. A confirmed breakout would put 5% back into view and create a more difficult environment for growth stocks, where higher yields increase the discount applied to future earnings.

The important distinction is confirmation.

A test of resistance is not the same thing as a breakout. Friday produced the test. The next move determines whether the level continues doing its job.

The S&P 500 Has Its Own Confirmation Level

The equity side of the equation remains relatively resilient.

After a strong advance Thursday, the S&P 500 gave back only part of that move following the employment report. Gareth’s key technical level remains 7570.

Holding above 7570 keeps the near-term bullish structure intact and leaves the 7900 area as the next major resistance zone on his chart.

A break below 7570 would change that read.

That would not automatically constitute a larger market breakdown, but it would move the index out of its current bullish structure and into a more neutral technical position. A deeper failure below the next support area would carry greater significance.

That creates a useful two-chart framework heading into the inflation data:

10-year below 4.8% plus S&P above 7570: the market is still absorbing the stronger macro data.

10-year breaking 4.8% plus S&P losing 7570: the pressure is beginning to transmit into equity structure.

The headline can change every morning. Those levels tell you whether the market actually changed with it.

Lululemon Shows Why the Level Matters More Than the Drop

The same logic applies to individual stocks.

Lululemon fell roughly 20% following earnings and traded near $98. That decline alone is not Gareth’s reason to become interested in the stock.

The level below it is.

On the weekly chart, a major historical breakout area from the 2012 to 2018 period sits near $80 to $81. Former resistance can become support once price moves through it, particularly when the level was important for years rather than days.

That makes the $80 to $81 zone substantially more meaningful than simply describing LULU as cheap because it has fallen.

The lesson is patience. A stock can be down sharply and still have no technical edge at the current price.

Zscaler presents a shorter-term version of the same setup. After its earnings reaction faded, Gareth identified roughly $154 to $155 as a prior breakout area worth watching on a retrace.

Planet Labs carries another nearby support zone around $24.50 to $25.

Different charts, same principle: the reaction to earnings creates volatility, but the pre-existing technical level determines where that volatility becomes interesting.

Yields Are Also Controlling Gold, Silver and Bitcoin

The cross-asset reaction reinforces the importance of the Treasury market.

Gold pulled back after the jobs report as yields and the US dollar moved higher. Silver moved toward support near 63.25. Bitcoin also reversed after rallying into resistance during the prior session.

Gareth is not forcing a position in gold while that relationship remains unsettled.

That is important because cash is part of the framework, not an absence of one.

A market can be volatile without offering a clean setup. When price is trapped between major levels or when the macro driver is sitting at its own decision point, waiting can carry more edge than trying to anticipate which side breaks first.

The 10-year is currently sitting at exactly that kind of decision point.

What Matters Next

The jobs report strengthened the case for tighter policy, but it did not settle the September Fed decision. CPI and PPI still have the ability to shift that calculation.

Until then, the cleaner information is coming from price.

The 10-year yield is testing major resistance near 4.8%. The S&P 500 remains above its 7570 pivot. Those two levels now form the market’s working framework.

If yields reject resistance while the S&P holds support, Friday’s labor shock may prove manageable for equities. If yields confirm a breakout and the S&P simultaneously loses 7570, the same jobs report starts carrying much greater technical weight.

That is the part worth watching.

The economic headline tells traders why markets moved. The charts tell them whether the move actually changed anything.