My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 09/08/2026: Fed CPI Risk and Key Levels for Yields, Oil, S&P 500 and Bitcoin

Oil is back above $94, the 10-year Treasury yield is pressing 4.8%, and the market is one week from a Federal Reserve decision that now carries a real debate over whether rates could move higher.

The obvious trade is to connect those dots in a straight line. Higher oil feeds inflation pressure, inflation keeps yields elevated, and elevated yields weigh on risk assets.

Gareth Soloway's read from Tuesday's My Trading Game Plan Revealed starts somewhere else: the narrative does not overrule the chart.

The 10-year yield is testing major resistance around 4.8%. Until that resistance actually breaks, Soloway's framework is to respect it as resistance. That same discipline runs through the S&P 500, Novartis, Oracle and Apple. Price can arrive at a level with every headline arguing for continuation. The level still gets the first vote.

The 4.8% Yield Is the Macro Decision Point

WTI crude pushed as high as $94.73 overnight as tensions between the U.S. and Iran kept a geopolitical premium in energy. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield moved back toward the resistance area above 4.8%.

That relationship matters heading into Thursday's PPI report, Friday's CPI report and the Federal Reserve's September 16 decision. Higher energy prices can reinforce inflation concerns, and a sustained breakout in yields would create another source of pressure for equities.

But "sustained breakout" is doing important work there.

Soloway is not assuming the 10-year will clear resistance simply because the macro backdrop appears to support it.

"We respect resistance and assume it rejects price… until it is proven otherwise."

That is the operating principle.

A clean break and acceptance above the 4.8% area would change the read. Until then, the chart is sitting at resistance, not above it.

The distinction prevents the macro story from becoming the trade thesis before price confirms it.

The S&P 500 Still Has a Floor

That same framework puts 7,570 at the center of the S&P 500 chart.

Soloway identifies the area as a confluence of a major trend line and a gap fill. While price remains above it, the broader structure has not suffered the kind of technical damage that would justify a materially more bearish read.

Below 7,570, however, the chart becomes less clean.

The next major level sits near 7,400, leaving roughly 170 points where Soloway sees considerably less technical definition. A break of 7,570 therefore would not automatically confirm a larger breakdown, but it would remove the support currently holding the structure together.

A close below 7,400 would be more consequential.

That gives the market a hierarchy rather than a binary call:

Above 7,570: underlying structure remains intact.

Below 7,570: the S&P enters a weaker, less defined zone.

Below 7,400: the technical picture changes more materially.

Novartis Shows Why Emotion Does Not Replace Structure

Novartis supplied the clearest single-stock example Tuesday.

The shares were hit hard after another clinical-trial setback, with the decline reaching double digits around the open. The magnitude of the move is precisely why Soloway is not interested in chasing it lower.

His chart puts the more important level near $133.

Two separate technical factors converge there. First, the area previously acted as resistance before the stock broke above it. That creates the potential for former resistance to become support on a retest.

Second, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the larger advance arrives in roughly the same zone.

Neither factor guarantees a bounce. Together, however, they give $133 more technical weight than a level derived from one signal alone.

That is the useful lesson from the NVS move. A double-digit decline creates emotion. The chart decides where that emotion becomes interesting.

If price reaches $133 and holds, the confluence would support a stabilization attempt. If it cuts decisively through the area, the setup loses much of the reason Soloway is watching it.

Oracle Is Strong, but the Harder Trade May Be Higher

Oracle sits on the opposite side of the tape.

The stock was trading near $168 in the premarket after closing below $159, participating in renewed strength across parts of the AI infrastructure and data-center trade.

Momentum is obvious. The better question is where that momentum runs into structure.

Soloway's first major resistance zone sits around $179 to $180, built from several prior pivot lows. Above that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement arrives near $182.

That makes $179 to $182 the more important part of the chart than the premarket percentage gain.

If earnings propel Oracle into that band, price would be testing multiple resistance factors at once. A clean breakout would strengthen the bullish structure and put higher levels, including the larger gap near $200, back into focus.

A rejection would say something different: momentum was strong enough to reach resistance, but not yet strong enough to clear it.

Apple Has the Reverse Problem

Apple is approaching its product event with a weaker technical structure.

Rather than front-running the event higher, the stock has been trending lower following Friday's decline. Soloway reads the resulting consolidation as a developing bear flag on the daily chart.

That does not guarantee another leg down. It establishes the current bias and, more importantly, the condition that would change it.

As long as Apple remains underneath its recent pivot highs, the bearish structure stays intact. A rally could still reach unfilled gaps overhead, but doing so would not by itself invalidate the larger pattern.

A break above the recent pivot structure would.

That makes Apple's event less about guessing whether investors will like the announcement and more about watching whether the reaction is strong enough to change the chart.

Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Need Confirmation

Some charts do not offer the same clarity.

Gold has broken one descending trend line only to run into ascending resistance. It has since pulled back and bounced, leaving price between competing technical boundaries.

Silver is similarly compressed between nearby support and resistance.

Neither requires a directional prediction here. The useful information comes from the eventual resolution.

Bitcoin has a clearer decision point near $77,000. Price is moving back toward that area after the recent decline.

Holding it would preserve the existing structure. A confirmed break below it would increase the risk of a larger retracement and bring lower support levels into focus.

Again, the level comes before the prediction.

The Chart Gets the First Vote

This week has no shortage of reasons to form a macro opinion. Oil is elevated. Treasury yields are testing resistance. PPI and CPI arrive before the Federal Reserve meets next week.

Soloway's framework is not to ignore those inputs. It is to refuse to let them front-run the technical evidence.

The 10-year yield can look ready to break 4.8%. Until it does, 4.8% is resistance.

Novartis can look broken after a double-digit decline. The meaningful test is whether $133 holds.

Oracle can have momentum into earnings. The harder part of its chart begins around $179 to $182.

Apple can carry a bearish pattern into a major product event. The pattern matters until price invalidates it.

The common thread is simple: form the thesis from the level, then let price decide whether the thesis survives.