My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 09/11/2026: CPI Hotter, Fed Hike Priced In; Oil Rejection Fuels S&P Rally and Bitcoin Bull Flag

The core CPI print came in slightly hotter than expected Thursday morning, and the market still rallied.

That apparent contradiction is the useful part of the setup.

The inflation data increased expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike, but crude oil simultaneously reversed sharply from a major technical level and the 10-year Treasury yield pulled back. For equities, that relief in two of the market's biggest pressure points outweighed the initial inflation headline.

Gareth Soloway's read in Thursday's My Trading Game Plan was therefore less about whether CPI was hot or cold and more about how the market processed it. Stocks were already sitting on technical support. Oil had just rejected resistance. Yields were easing.

The headline leaned hawkish. The price action did not.

CPI Raised the Fed Risk, but the Market Was Already Looking Past the Hike

Headline CPI matched expectations on both the year-over-year and month-over-month readings, while core CPI came in one-tenth above consensus on the monthly number.

That was enough to push market-implied expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike higher ahead of next week's decision.

But the S&P 500 did not trade as though the hike itself was a new shock.

That distinction matters. If markets increasingly view the coming move as already discounted, the bigger question shifts to what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says afterward. A hike accompanied by language suggesting additional tightening would carry a different implication than a hike framed as sufficient for now.

The first signal from equities Thursday was that the inflation print alone was not enough to break the existing technical structure.

The S&P 500 Held the Level That Mattered

The S&P 500 had been moving lower inside a descending channel, producing a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.

Normally that structure deserves caution. The location of the decline changed the read.

The channel ran directly into a larger rising support trend line that Soloway had been using as the boundary for his bullish bias. Instead of breaking through that support, futures reversed higher and were up roughly 1% in pre-market trading.

That creates a clear hierarchy between the two structures.

The descending channel describes the short-term pullback. The rising trend line underneath it determines whether that pullback remains constructive.

As long as the larger support continues to hold, the decline can still be interpreted as consolidation within the broader bullish structure. A decisive loss of that trend line would materially change the read.

What helped the market defend it was happening outside equities.

Oil Hit $104 and Rejected

Crude provided one of the cleaner technical reactions on the board.

After a steep advance, oil reached the $104 area Soloway had identified as the next major resistance level. Price touched that zone in after-hours trading and then reversed sharply, falling back below $100.

The importance of that move extends beyond the oil chart.

Rising crude feeds directly into the inflation discussion. It raises transportation and input costs and gives the bond market another reason to price persistent inflation pressure. A reversal does the opposite, at least at the margin.

That is why Thursday's oil move matters more than simply calling the $104 resistance correctly.

The rejection reduced one of the macro pressures working against equities at the same time Treasury yields began moving lower.

Soloway's next major crude level sits near $92.50, an area that previously acted as resistance. If the pullback extends, that former ceiling becomes the next important test of whether buyers are willing to defend the breakout.

Falling Yields Gave Stocks Room to Ignore CPI

The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back toward the 4.92% area Thursday morning.

That move helps explain why equities could rally through a mildly hotter core inflation number.

The transmission chain is relatively straightforward: lower oil reduces some inflation pressure, softer inflation pressure can ease upward pressure on yields, and lower yields reduce the valuation pressure on equities.

That does not make Thursday's CPI irrelevant. It shows that markets trade the interaction among variables rather than one economic release in isolation.

If crude resumes its advance and Treasury yields turn back higher, the pressure on stocks returns. If both continue easing while the S&P holds its larger trend line, the bullish structure has more room to work.

That is the macro decision point.

Adobe Is Approaching the "Scene of the Crime"

The same level-to-level logic appears in Adobe following earnings.

Adobe previously broke above a major resistance trend line. The stock is now retracing toward that breakout area near $220.

Soloway refers to these retests as returning to the "scene of the crime." Resistance is broken, price extends away from it, then eventually comes back to see whether the former ceiling can function as support.

That does not mean $220 automatically produces a bounce. It means the level carries more technical information than price does in the middle of the range.

KWEB recently offered a similar example. After breaking through resistance, the ETF retraced toward the breakout zone around $24.50 and reacted higher.

The principle is more useful than either individual trade: the best information often comes from the reaction after a breakout, not the breakout itself.

Oracle and RH do not currently offer the same proximity to meaningful levels. That makes patience more useful than forcing a setup. Soloway identified resistance near $179 and support around $139 to $140 on Oracle, while RH has a potential gap-fill area near $170 and lower support around $118 to $119.

Until price reaches those areas, the charts provide less technical leverage.

Gold and Silver Are Testing Their Necklines

Gold and silver are presenting a different problem.

Both have been working around head-and-shoulders structures, but neither has produced the decisive breakdown that would confirm the bearish pattern.

Gold received help Thursday from the simultaneous decline in the dollar and Treasury yields. That kept price around neckline support rather than accelerating lower.

Silver is confronting a similar decision. Holding its governing trend line keeps a recovery toward the $70 to $71 resistance area in play. A confirmed break beneath support would instead strengthen the bearish structure and put lower levels, including the area around $55, back in focus.

The important distinction is confirmation.

A bearish pattern sitting on support is not the same thing as a confirmed breakdown.

Bitcoin's $76,000 Area Keeps the Bull Flag Intact

Bitcoin is following the same principle.

Price has repeatedly reacted around the $76,000 support region, and the broader structure can still be viewed as a developing bull flag while that area holds.

The support is therefore more important than trying to predict the breakout.

Continued defense of the zone preserves the bullish structure. A decisive break beneath it would weaken the bull-flag read and force a reassessment of the near-term setup.

Again, the chart is providing a condition, not a guarantee.

The Bottom Line

Thursday's CPI number was hotter at the margin, but that was not the market's dominant signal.

The more important development was the combination underneath it: crude rejected $104, Treasury yields retreated, and the S&P 500 defended a larger technical support line.

That explains why equities could rally despite a data point that, viewed in isolation, looked negative.

The next test is whether those relationships persist. If oil continues pulling back, yields remain contained, and the S&P holds its rising support, the market has room to look through the coming Fed decision. If oil and yields reverse higher again, that relief trade becomes much harder to sustain.

For now, the headline says hotter inflation.

The charts say the market is watching something else.