My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 09/21/2026: S&P 500 Breakout, Bitcoin Bull Shift and Oil Pullback Fuel Stocks

Markets opened the week with three developments pointing in the same direction: oil is retreating, the 10-year Treasury yield is backing away from 5%, and the S&P 500 is pressing into a potential breakout.

For Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, that combination matters more than any one headline. Lower oil eases one source of inflation pressure. A retreat in long-term yields takes some pressure off equity valuations. And after holding together through last week's Federal Reserve rate hike, the S&P 500 is now testing the top of a bullish technical structure.

Bitcoin is adding another piece to the picture. After holding the $75,500 area through the failure of the CLARITY Act to advance in the Senate, Bitcoin has pushed above the high of its previous major bounce. That does not confirm a new bull market by itself, but it is the first structural evidence that the bearish sequence may be changing.

Oil Is Giving Stocks Some Breathing Room

Crude oil fell back below $100 Monday as traders reacted to improving indications around Gulf energy flows. U.S. Central Command said oil and LNG movements through the Strait of Hormuz had reached a six-month high, while markets are also looking toward this week's meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

For equities, the immediate importance is straightforward. Oil retreating from recent highs reduces one source of inflation pressure and, alongside falling Treasury yields, removes some of the macro pressure that weighed on stocks last week.

Gareth has also been watching sentiment around crude from a contrarian perspective.

"I always look at it for contrarian aspects," he said. "When I see a ton of people bullish on oil, I'm like, oh, it's coming down."

That does not mean heavily bullish retail positioning mechanically forces oil lower. The more useful takeaway is that Gareth becomes increasingly cautious when positioning and sentiment appear crowded in one direction. Options positioning can also influence dealer hedging and short-term price behavior around major strikes and expiration dates, but the chart still has to confirm the move.

For now, continued weakness toward $90 or $85 would add another tailwind for equities. A renewed surge in crude would begin taking that advantage away.

Why the 10-Year Matters More Than the Fed Headline

The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points last week to 3.75%-4.00%, its first rate increase since 2023. The initial reaction was volatile, with the 10-year Treasury yield moving back above 5% before retreating toward 4.95% Monday morning.

Gareth's interpretation is that a more aggressive inflation-fighting Fed can ultimately help the long end if bond investors become more confident that inflation will be contained.

"If they're hawkish, it means you have an adult in the room that's actually taking inflation seriously, which means a better financial future potentially for the United States, and it actually should bring long end rates down," Gareth said.

That is not an automatic relationship. Long-term yields also reflect inflation expectations, fiscal conditions, growth and Treasury supply. But for the current market setup, price is what matters.

The 10-year recently tested the 5% area and is pulling back. As long as that resistance continues to hold, one of the biggest pressures on equities remains contained.

The S&P 500 Is Testing the Breakout

That brings the analysis back to the chart carrying the most weight.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,650.50 and entered Monday with futures sharply higher. The move puts the index back near the descending trendline forming the upper boundary of the bullish consolidation Gareth has been tracking.

The structure resembles a bull flag: a strong advance followed by consolidation near the upper portion of the move rather than a deeper retracement.

The important level is around 7,700.

A decisive break and hold above that resistance would strengthen the breakout thesis and put roughly 7,900 to 8,000 in focus as the measured-move zone. Until that happens, however, 7,700 remains resistance rather than a confirmed breakout.

That distinction matters. Gareth's longer-term concerns about debt and fiscal conditions have not disappeared, but the near-term chart can remain bullish at the same time. Trading the chart does not require the long-term macro view and the short-term technical view to point in the same direction.

Bitcoin Just Changed the Conversation

Bitcoin may be undergoing an equally important structural test.

Last week, the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, with the procedural vote falling short of the 60 votes required. Bitcoin initially traded below $76,000 but held the broader support area Gareth had identified around $75,500. It has since rallied above $85,000.

"As long as we don't close below $75,500, then you favor the upside," Gareth said.

The key development is not simply the size of the rebound. Bitcoin has now pushed above the high of its previous major bounce, interrupting the pattern of lower highs that had defined the bearish structure.

That is an important change, but one higher high does not by itself confirm a new bull market. The next pullback matters because a higher low would add the second piece needed to establish a more convincing bullish sequence.

As Gareth put it:

"We now have a potential low from the bear market in, and we could be entering the bull, the new bull phase on Bitcoin."

Near term, the $85,000-$87,000 area remains the immediate resistance zone. If Bitcoin can break through and hold above it, the next major technical area on Gareth's chart comes in near $97,000. A failure back through the recent breakout structure would weaken that read.

Gold and Silver Still Require Patience

The setup is different in precious metals.

Gold has broken out of its prior wedge but is now trading within an ascending parallel channel, with the upper boundary acting as resistance around the $4,800 area on Gareth's chart. Silver is showing a similar channel structure.

That makes these markets less about anticipating another breakout and more about respecting the range until price proves otherwise. The channel boundaries provide the decision points. A confirmed break changes the framework; continued rejection keeps the range intact.

Natural gas is also compressing after months of sideways trade. Gareth remains constructive heading toward winter, but the range has not resolved yet. The compression is worth watching precisely because direction remains unconfirmed.

Options Expiration May Be Part of the Semiconductor Story

Individual technology stocks are also showing strength after Friday's quarterly expiration.

September 18 marked a major options expiration, with stock index futures, index options, individual stock options and newly returned single-stock futures expiring together.

Gareth raised an interesting possibility around Micron and SanDisk:

"I wonder how many calls had been bought over the last few months on Sandisk, on Micron. And therefore, the institutions didn't want to let them rally significantly until those were cleared off the board."

That should be treated as a market-structure hypothesis rather than a proven explanation for the rally. What matters now is whether the charts confirm the strength after expiration.

Micron is gapping higher toward the $1,154-$1,155 area, where multiple technical references converge on Gareth's chart. That makes the zone more important than any single indicator by itself. Price behavior there will determine whether resistance produces another reaction or gives way.

SanDisk is also pressing through a descending trendline after Friday's surge. The developing cup-and-handle structure keeps the chart constructive while the breakout holds, but I would verify the exact upside target against Gareth's chart before publication.

Microsoft and Tesla Add Confirmation

Microsoft is forming its own bull flag, broadly reinforcing the structure developing in the S&P 500. A confirmed breakout would strengthen that read, while continued consolidation keeps the setup developing rather than complete.

Tesla has already filled a recent gap and is now working toward a descending trendline above $400. That resistance is the decision point. A rejection would keep the longer-term ceiling intact, while a confirmed break would materially change the chart.

The Bottom Line

The strongest signal Monday is not coming from one market.

Oil is retreating. The 10-year is pulling back from the 5% area. The S&P 500 is testing resistance near 7,700. Bitcoin has broken above its previous major swing high. Semiconductor stocks are showing renewed strength after expiration.

The S&P remains the immediate directional anchor. A confirmed break above 7,700 would strengthen the case for a move toward the 7,900-8,000 measured-move zone. Bitcoin's next test is different: after producing a higher high, the market now needs to show whether it can build a higher low.

Those are the levels that matter. The headlines may provide the catalyst, but the next confirmation still has to come from price.