My Trading Game Plan Revealed - 12/24/2025: S&P 500 Double Tap Risk, Silver Parabolic Top, Bitcoin and Oil Trade Setups

As the holiday season settles in, markets are entering a period of characteristically low volume, a dynamic that often favors a bullish drift as institutional players step away. In this morning's My Trading Game Plan, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, highlighted this seasonal tendency while simultaneously pointing to critical storm clouds gathering on the horizon. From a historic technical test in the silver market to concerning macroeconomic shifts, the stage is being set for a potentially volatile start to the new year.

The Quiet Before the Storm: Holiday Drifts and a Historic Double Tap

The end-of-year market action often lulls traders into a false sense of security. With institutional money largely on vacation, retail investors tend to keep the markets buoyant. As Gareth noted, this creates a predictable pattern: "Anytime you have holiday-ish type of volume, you always give the market a neutral to bullish bias. Why? Because retail isn't out there shorting the market in general. They're generally continuing to put money on the long side." This explains the gentle upward float we've witnessed, but beneath this calm surface, a major technical test is approaching for the S&P 500.

The index is closing in on a major trend line that has defined the market's trajectory for years. This isn't the first time we've been here. The current setup bears a striking resemblance to late 2021, a pattern Gareth refers to as a "double tap."

"In November [2021], we tagged the line, pulled back, and then in January, actually late December into January, we tagged it again, very similar to what we're seeing here. Notice again, following that, we had the big sell-off."

History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. As technicians, we study these past patterns not as guarantees, but as high-probability roadmaps. The 2021 double tap preceded a significant market correction. The current approach to this same parallel trend line resistance demands respect. A rejection here, potentially in early January, could signal the start of a much larger corrective move for equities in 2026. This is the essence of probability-based trading: recognizing historical precedents and positioning for the most likely outcomes until the market proves otherwise.

Macro Cracks: Inflation Goalposts and Government Intervention

While the charts tell a story of technical resistance, the fundamental backdrop is also showing signs of strain. Two concerning developments emerged that traders cannot afford to ignore. First, despite earlier talk of fiscal austerity, government spending has actually increased this year. Second, and perhaps more alarmingly, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has alluded to a 3% inflation rate as a potentially acceptable "new normal."

This represents a significant moving of the goalposts. For years, the Federal Reserve has targeted 2% inflation. Shifting that target to 3% is a tacit admission that they may be unable or unwilling to bring inflation back to its long-term goal without triggering a severe recession. This has profound implications for the purchasing power of consumers and the long-term value of savings.

This theme of government influence took on another dimension with the news surrounding Intel. Nvidia has reportedly stopped testing Intel's chips, citing a failure to meet quality standards. This comes after Intel received significant government support and deals with major tech players. Gareth explained the danger this represents:

"This is why you don't let governments buy into companies because then they pick winners… and substandard technology then gets pushed forward versus letting a normal capitalist society of the best wins be the key."

From a market perspective, this is not just a philosophical debate. It has direct, tradable consequences. Intel’s stock broke a key upsloping trend line in the pre-market on this news, signaling a technical breakdown. While a sharp flush down to its pivot low around $32.90 USD might offer a quick day trade opportunity, the longer-term picture for the stock is now clouded by questions about its competitive edge. This situation serves as a stark reminder that government intervention can distort market mechanics and create unforeseen risks for investors.

Silver's Parabolic Echo: A 500% Move Revisited

The most explosive action in the markets has undoubtedly been in the precious metals, particularly silver. The white metal has staged a run of historic proportions, but it has now arrived at a technical juncture of immense significance. Drawing a trend line connecting the 1982 bear market low to the epic 2011 high reveals a precise resistance level that silver tagged to the penny.

The historical parallels don't stop there. An analysis of silver's previous bull runs provides a stunning quantitative context for the current move.

"If we take a look at the low in 2008 right here to the high in 2011, it was about a 500% move… Now, if we take this low in the COVID era low, so 2020, and we do it up here, look, we're right at that same approximate level, about 510, 515%."

When a multi-decade trend line converges with a historical price extension of this magnitude, technicians must pay close attention. It doesn't guarantee a top, but it dramatically increases the probability of a significant pullback. A correction to the previous breakout level around $50.00 USD, while painful for latecomers, would be entirely consistent with silver's volatile history of "big pops and big drawdowns." This confluence of factors makes the current level a high-risk entry point and a potential area for profit-taking for those who have ridden the wave up.

The Great Capital Reversion: From Silver to Bitcoin?

The meteoric rise in silver has led to an interesting hypothesis about inter-asset capital flows. Where did the fuel for this rally come from? Gareth suggests a potential source: the cryptocurrency market.

"My hypothesis… is that money has actually come out of Bitcoin and crypto and gone into silver for this run, which again, has depressed altcoins and even Bitcoin."

If this is true, it sets the stage for a potential "reversion trade." Should silver begin to correct from its massive technical resistance, that capital will look for a new home. Bitcoin, which has been consolidating in a bear flag pattern, could be a prime beneficiary. A 10-15% correction in silver could easily fuel a powerful surge in Bitcoin.

While Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook (3+ months) may still be lower, a short-term rally is plausible. "If we do see a reversion trade from silver into Bitcoin, that would give… Bitcoin the excuse, which is still in [the] supported area, to rally all the way back towards one hundred thousand [$100,000 USD]." This potential rotation highlights the interconnectedness of modern markets, where a top in one speculative asset can trigger a bottom in another.

The Commodity Catch-Up: Is Oil the Next to Run?

While silver, platinum, and palladium have had incredible runs, one major commodity has been left behind: crude oil. After a significant correction, oil has been quietly building a base and is now making a move that could position it as the catch-up trade for early 2026.

This week, oil has surged and is now attacking the critical resistance level of $59.00 USD per barrel. The significance of this level cannot be overstated. "If it breaks out, you could be looking at honestly seventy, seventy-five dollars a barrel in a matter of a month or two."

Institutional money managers are not blind to these divergences. They see the parabolic moves in metals and look for the next undervalued asset with explosive potential. As Gareth pointed out, they may be asking themselves, "What commodity hasn't run epically yet? Well, let's look at oil right now." With oil still trading not far from its 52-week lows, it presents a compelling relative value proposition. A confirmed breakout above $59.00 USD could trigger a flood of institutional capital, creating a powerful, self-reinforcing rally.

Technical Lessons in Action

The analysis of individual stocks provided further masterclass-level lessons in technical analysis. Enphase (ENPH) demonstrated the power of breaking a multi-year downtrend, signaling a major character change in the stock. A potential retrace to the $30.00 USD area could present a prime buying opportunity for this potential "January effect" candidate.

Conversely, Robinhood (HOOD) presents a bearish picture. After breaking a key trend line, it retraced, was rejected, and is now forming a classic bear flag. This pattern strongly suggests more downside is likely coming in January.

These examples, along with the detailed analysis of the broader markets and commodities, underscore the core philosophy of technical trading. It's not about predicting the future with certainty; it's about identifying patterns, understanding historical precedents, and playing the probabilities. As Gareth consistently emphasizes, "That's what charting and technical analysis is all about. It's about probability trading."

Conclusion: Navigating the New Year with a Probabilistic Edge

As we close out the year, the market presents a complex tapestry of quiet holiday trading, explosive commodity moves, and looming technical and macroeconomic risks. The S&P 500 is approaching a historical resistance point that previously marked a major top. Silver has completed a parabolic move that mirrors its 2011 peak. And underlying it all are concerning shifts in fiscal and monetary policy.

By applying a disciplined, probability-based approach, traders can navigate this environment with clarity. Respecting major resistance levels, understanding the potential for capital rotations between asset classes, and identifying laggards with catch-up potential are all key components of a robust trading game plan. As we head into 2026, the charts are providing clear levels and potential scenarios that will allow prepared investors to capitalize on the volatility that is sure to come.