Trading The Close Market Recap - 04/23/2026: Volatility Rally — Geopolitical Shock, Semiconductor Blow-Off & Earnings Divergence

The financial markets delivered a masterclass in intraday volatility and psychological resilience today. Between geopolitical flashpoints in the Middle East, massive earnings beats in the semiconductor space, and critical technical levels being tested across multiple asset classes, traders were forced to navigate a complex web of headline risk and technical structure. In today’s Trading The Close, Pro Trader Drew Dosek at VerifiedInvesting.com broke down the chart action, revealing how seemingly chaotic price movements actually adhered to strict technical parameters.

For traders and investors looking to separate signal from noise, today's price action offered invaluable lessons in probability-based trading, the mechanics of blow-off tops, and the psychological traps of "sell the news" events.

Geopolitical Shockwaves and Market Resilience

The trading day was defined by a sudden injection of headline risk. News of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, specifically involving the Strait of Hormuz and air defense rocket systems activating in Tehran, sent immediate shockwaves through the algorithmic trading ecosystem. As expected during geopolitical flare-ups, equities plunged while oil prices surged.

However, the true story wasn't the initial panic—it was the subsequent recovery.

"This just highlights how fragile the markets are when they react to news," Drew noted. "But then with this sort of news of escalation, the markets just rebounded just as quickly."

By the closing bell, the broader markets had recovered to finish right in the middle of the day's price action. The S&P 500 experienced a violent, whippy session. As highlighted on the show, the SPY ETF saw its high range from 712 all the way down to 702, representing a 10-point variance that pierced the bottom end of an inclining trend line before buyers stepped back in.

Despite the intraday plunge, the S&P 500 closed just pennies away from previous all-time highs. On the daily chart, this price action is forming a consolidation pattern that resembles a bull flag at the top of the chart. While historical technical analysis warns that bull flags at the absolute top of a chart generally fail, the strength of today's close—pushing price back into the upper range of consolidation despite the geopolitical headwinds—demonstrates underlying market resilience that cannot be ignored.

The Semiconductor Blow-Off Top

If you want to understand the current market environment, you have to look at the semiconductors. The SMH ETF has long served as a leading indicator for broader market risk appetite, and its current chart is printing historical extremes.

"This has been a monumental blow off run for SMH," Drew emphasized, pointing out the sheer verticality of the recent price action.

The SMH is currently riding the top of a tight parallel channel that dates back to the lows of April 2025. After hours, the ETF actually pierced and closed above the top end of this channel. This is occurring while the near-term RSI (Relative Strength Index) sits at an overbought 79.63.

To understand the gravity of this setup, we must look at the concept of a "blow-off top." In technical analysis, a blow-off top occurs when an asset experiences a steep, rapid increase in price and volume, often driven by extreme speculative fervor, before eventually exhausting its momentum. The SMH is currently printing a rare four-bar surge on the weekly chart.

Markets and charts love symmetry. As Drew pointed out, the SMH recently deviated below the bottom end of this parallel channel back in March before recovering. It is now attempting the exact opposite—a deviation above the top end. Traders must remain hyper-vigilant here. While momentum can carry overbought assets higher for longer than logic dictates, the rubber band is stretched to historic proportions.

Earnings Extravaganza: The Divergence of Tech Giants

Earnings season is the ultimate catalyst for volatility, and today's reports provided textbook examples of how price reacts to fundamental news through a technical lens.

Texas Instruments and Intel: The Rocket Ships

Texas Instruments (TXN) delivered a massive beat, topping earnings per share estimates by 23% and revenue by 6.6%. The market rewarded this performance with a staggering 19.43% explosion to the upside.

This move shattered a long-term parallel channel dating back to the COVID-19 lows of March 2020. However, this explosive price action pushed the RSI to an extreme 88.64. When an asset breaks out with this level of velocity, it eventually needs to breathe. Pro Trader Drew identified clear historical resistance targets ahead: a major trend line at $291, followed closely by the psychological resistance level of $300.

More importantly for swing traders, broken resistance often becomes future support. If TXN retraces, the key levels to watch for a retest are $254.64 and the bigger parallel boundary at $228.72.

Intel mirrored this bullish explosion after hours, rocketing to $77.22 and pushing its monthly RSI to 75.01. After being left for dead and subsequently revived by government investment, Intel's long-term breakout is historic. Yet, the same technical rules apply: long-term broken trend lines are magnets for future retests. Traders should keep the $68.15 level on their radar for a potential future pullback entry.

Salesforce (CRM): The Bearish Breakdown

In stark contrast to the semiconductor strength, Salesforce (CRM) suffered an 8.69% drop, breaking down near the bottom of its recent price action.

The weekly chart reveals an awkwardly shaped, yet highly dangerous, head and shoulders pattern. If this bearish consolidation breaks its inclining trend line, the measured move could drag CRM sub-$100, specifically targeting $97.63.

Interestingly, the daily RSI sits at 41.08, showing some bullish divergence from previous lows. This suggests the stock is trying to put together a near-term bounce, but today's heavy selling pressure is actively erasing that hope. The immediate support to watch sits around the $150 range, but a failure there opens the trapdoor to the double-digit price targets.

Intermarket Analysis: Commodities at a Crossroads

The geopolitical news that shook equities had an immediate, albeit technically structured, impact on the commodity markets.

Oil's Stair-Step Ascent

US Oil has been trading in a highly technical stair-step pattern on the hourly chart. Prior to the Middle East news, oil was repeatedly testing and getting rejected at an intraday resistance line of $95.25. Once the headlines broke, oil surged violently through the next resistance at $97.32.

However, the technical structure held. Even with the geopolitical panic, the hourly wick tested the resistance and held perfectly. If the upward momentum continues, the next major upside target aligns with an inclining parallel channel at $104.34.

Gold and Silver: The Bear Flag Warning

Despite the geopolitical tensions—which traditionally act as a tailwind for safe-haven metals—both gold and silver are printing concerning technical patterns.

Gold has formed consecutive bear flags on the daily chart. By breaking its near-term inclining trend line, the metal has signaled a potential trend change. "This is one key way to find out if the trend changed," Drew explained. "That's the main trend line, guys, as simple as drawing from a pivot low and connecting the pivots on the way up." The next critical break point for gold sits at $4,588.

Silver is showing slightly more relative strength than gold, fighting to close above its key support level of $75.33. However, it is also trapped in a bear flag formation. If silver fails to hold this support, the bearish momentum could accelerate.

The Psychology of "Sell the News"

One of the most valuable psychological lessons from today's market action came courtesy of the cannabis sector. News broke that the United States is changing the classification of marijuana from a Schedule 1 to a Schedule 3 drug—a massive fundamental shift that eases banking, research, and investment restrictions.

Predictably, retail investors flooded into Tilray, pushing the stock above $9 in the pre-market session. But by the time the daily candle closed, it had formed a mammoth red reversal candle.

"Look at that mammoth red candle," Drew warned. "This stock is a ‘sell the news’ stock. It's done it time and time again."

This is a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. Institutional players and smart money often use the liquidity generated by euphoric retail buyers on headline news to exit their positions at premium prices. For traders looking to play any future upside in Tilray, technical structure must take precedence over headlines. The key declining trend line resistance to watch currently sits at $13.79, a level that originates all the way back from September 2023.

The Discipline of Technical Confirmation

A recurring theme in professional trading is the absolute necessity of confirmation. Anticipating a breakout or a breakdown before the daily or weekly candle closes is a surefire way to get trapped by market makers.

We saw this play out across several charts today:

Tesla and Microsoft: Both stocks were highlighted as potential "breakout and retrace bounce" plays. However, both closed slightly underneath their respective declining trend lines today. A close below these levels negates the breakout scenario. As Drew advised, without confirmation tomorrow, traders must exit the position. (For Microsoft, the next major resistance remains at $440.02).

Palantir: The stock dropped 7.24% today, trading within a declining wedge pattern. However, it printed a daily bottoming tail right in the historical support zone of $130 down to $120. Palantir is now at a technical crossroads. A breakdown below the inclining trend line at $138.26 spells further downside, while a confirmed daily close above $149 would trigger a breakout.

REMX (Rare Earth Metal ETF): Following a viewer request, analysis of REMX revealed a massive macro breakout from a trend line connecting April 2011 to April 2022. However, the stock failed to execute the traditional "breakout, retest, and go" pattern, putting the longevity of the move in question. To confirm the bullish thesis and target $121, REMX needs a strong close above the $103 consolidation range. Failure to do so could send it tumbling back to support levels at $68.22 and $59.60.

Conclusion: Structure Before Speculation

Today's market action perfectly encapsulated why trading based on headlines, emotions, or gut feelings is a losing game. When geopolitical missiles fly and earnings reports trigger 20% gaps, the only thing that protects a trader's capital is a rigid adherence to technical structure.

Whether it was IBM holding its precise support level at $225 despite heavy selling, or Natural Gas getting perfectly rejected at $2.90 to fall back toward $2.71 and $2.41, the charts provided a roadmap through the chaos. Even Bitcoin adhered to its structure, holding safely above $73,173 as it builds momentum toward upside targets of $80,000, $80,500, and eventually $85,000.

As highlighted at the end of today's broadcast, trading is not a get-rich-quick scheme; it is a meticulously honed skill. Most retail participants enter the market reading articles and reacting to news, only to be crushed by the underlying mechanics they cannot see.

Success requires clarity before complexity, and structure before speculation. By learning to identify high-probability patterns, waiting for daily closes to confirm breakouts, and respecting historical support and resistance levels, traders can remove the emotion from their decision-making process. The goal is never perfection—it is progress, clarity, and the mathematical edge that comes from letting the charts dictate your actions.