Economic Analysis: US Non Farm Payrolls Report

U.S. non farm payrolls have been trending slightly lower over the last three years. However, they continue to be positive, still showing solid labor demand.

Last month, the non farm payrolls report came in at 175,000. This was slightly lower than expect. The market reacted with jubilation in hopes the Federal Reserve would be more likely to cut rates. However, expected rate cuts in 2024 remain at 1-2.

As the trend is lower and the Federal Reserve is still fighting elevated inflation, investors should expect the downward trend to continue. Many companies guided lower in their latest quarterly earnings announcements. This continues to signal a weaker consumer.

The latest non farm payrolls report will be out June 7th at 8:30am ET. Economists are expecting the number to come in at 185,000. This would be slightly higher than last month if no revisions are made.

In general, investors should be ready for the number to come in lighter than expected. 150,000 would not be out of the realm of expectations.

Following the trend of the non farm payrolls can tell investors if the economy is weakening or strengthening.