Job Openings In Consistent Decline For The Last 18 Months

Job openings (JOLTS) economic data for the last 18 months has been consistently declining. This means there are less jobs per unemployed job seeker.

It is a key metric for forecasting a potential recession. While there are still more than one job for every person looking, it has shrunk dramatically.

Should this trend continue, a recession will come. Historic data shows us that job openings decline first, then unemployment begins to spike, especially once the job opening is less than the amount of unemployed.

Per this data, there is still likely 3-6 months of shrinking job openings before a recession will hit. However, it is important to recognize that the stock market will begin to factor in a recession 3-6 months in advance.

Could that be why the stock market is no longer making new all-time highs? Investors have to ponder this...