Insights And Analysis: Non Farm Payrolls Truth

The latest Non Farm Payrolls Report showed a slight decline in hiring. The economy added 206,000 jobs in the month of June after adding 227,000 in the month of May. The 206,000 was slightly more than economists had expected.

The trend for jobs growth has been slowing over the last year. Wage growth has also slowed. These are both tell-tale signs of a slowing economy.

The biggest question is; will there be a soft landing/no landing scenario or will a recession hit.

With the yield curve inverted for the longest time ever, investors and economists should be skeptical of the soft landing scenario. There has never been a time in history where the yield curve inverted and a recession did not follow, especially the longer inversions.

So why has the economy not had a recession yet? Likely a combination of massive liquidity in the economy from Covid, government spending (massive debt) and the stock market hitting new all-time highs almost daily.